EUR/USD continues to trade in tight range above 1.4711 support today. Outlook remains unchanged. Correction from 1.4966 is still expected to extend lower as long as 1.4859 resistance holds, probably towards 1.4519 clusters support. Above 1.4859 will indicate that fall from 1.4966 has possibly completed and bring retest of 1.5 cluster resistance.
As discussed before, while rise from 1.4014 is completed, it's early to confirm that rise from 1.3360 has completed too. Focus is now on 1.4519 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4014 to 1.4966 at 1.4490). Decisive break of this support zone will add much credence to the case that rally from 1.3360 has completed too after failing 1.5 key medium resistance and bring deeper correction to 1.4014/4281 support zone before resuming the long term up trend. But strong rebound above this level will suggest another rise should be seen before making a medium term top.
In the bigger picture, regardless of internal structure, medium term up trend from 1.1639 remains in force and is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and is now close to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which will overlap with 1.5 psychological resistance. Upside could be limited by this resistance initially on overbought condition. Sustained trading above this key resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally is still underway to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048. On the downside, firm break of 1.3851 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal that this up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Otherwise, long term outlook remains bullish.
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