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Jun 10, 2008

Daily Forex Market

The dollar made a brutal recovery on Monday against everything but the pound, after the weekend didn't bring any surprise from the Middle East and the oil price (temporarily) tempered its uptrend. Talk of concerted rate hikes gave the buck a reprieve, but I'm not sure it's the start of a big recovery for the dollar. Tuesday should see more strength, by the medium term outlook is negative.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell from a 1 ½-month high and formed a bearish reversal formation on the daily chart. Be careful of this one, more confirmation is needed if the decline is to pan out, and the current level at 1.5645 is important.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5560. Strong support follows at 1.5470. Distant support is at 1.5415.

Strong resistance is at 1.5615. Above 1.5655, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5740. Further resistance is then seen at 1.5842.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is trading one day up and one day down, and on Monday it reversed early losses in a dramatic fashion to close at an over tree-month high. My model went long, but I am not too comfortable with the upside.

Initial resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance is perched at 107.95 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Initial support is seen at 106.25. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied for the third consecutive day on Monday, as horrible inflation numbers make further rate hikes a done deal. My model is long, but the short term outlook is bearish.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9675. Below 1.9640, the next level is 1.9585.

Good resistance now comes at 1.9760. 1.9801 follows. Above the pivot high at 1.9850, there is further resistance at 1.9960.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed from the lowest level since April 24, but remains below the bottom of a triangle. More weakness seems to remain in store, but only in the medium term. Short term, it looks strong.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0340. This is followed by 1.0390 and 1.0490.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.0270. This is followed by 1.0150. Distant support is at 1.0100.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Currency Technical Report

EUR/USD

Resistance : 1,5620-30/ 1,5655/ 1,5670/ 1,5700/ 1,5730
Support : 1,5550/ 1,5520-25/ 1,5490-00/ 1,5450

Comment : The wider sideways formation that sets the ranges for euro's move these last months was confirmed for one more time, as bears gained momentum leading euro to a decline near the limits of the downtrend reversal. Bulls in the lows of 1.5400 were helped by the chairman of ECB Jean Claude Trichet, who warned about a potential rate hike, while bears were helped by comments regarding strong dollar from Bush and Henry Paulson mentioning the intervention as way of supporting currencies. The only thing that is certain is that there is an attempt from both sides to support their currency and we will wait to see the results…

After yesterday's facts, it is very possible that we are in the formation of a downward wave within the sideways consolidation, which may be as quick as the previous upward wave.

The short trend is now bearish and a downward break of 1.5560 will cancel any possibility of an upward resumption.

Below 1.5560, next targets are at the area of 1.5470-90, which is considered as a strong support level. Next targets are in the base of the formation in the area of 1.5370-00, but we will be cautious regarding its immediate reach for the time being.

The area of 1.5620 is the first resistance level, followed by a more important at 1.5660-70. If yesterday's bears have strength, retracements should not breach the area of 1.5670. In an opposite case, the area of 1.5730-50 could be reached again. If high volatility occurs it will be difficult to have a clear strategy and we should wait for a more clear view in the short term. For the time being we will use any opportunity within the ranges of the wider sideways consolidation...

TRADING EUR/USD : Our strategy regarding sell positions proved accurate, even if the decline was further than expected, opening our sell positions at the lower levels. The current trend is bearish and it will be followed until important support levels are reached.

Sell positions will be tried in any retracement towards 1.5650-60 area, adding more at 1.5700 with stops above 1.5730. Sell positions would also emerge at a potential break of 1.5555, having as target the area of 1.5480-90. In that case, stops should be set above the 1.5620 area...In the area of 1.5470-90 we will turn on the bulls side, with stops below 1.5445...


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