Globe Finance

Daily Forex Market

2008-06-10T18:51:00.000-07:00

The dollar made a brutal recovery on Monday against everything but the pound, after the weekend didn't bring any surprise from the Middle East and the oil price (temporarily) tempered its uptrend. Talk of concerted rate hikes gave the buck a reprieve, but I'm not sure it's the start of a big recovery for the dollar. Tuesday should see more strength, by the medium term outlook is negative.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell from a 1 ½-month high and formed a bearish reversal formation on the daily chart. Be careful of this one, more confirmation is needed if the decline is to pan out, and the current level at 1.5645 is important.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5560. Strong support follows at 1.5470. Distant support is at 1.5415.

Strong resistance is at 1.5615. Above 1.5655, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5740. Further resistance is then seen at 1.5842.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is trading one day up and one day down, and on Monday it reversed early losses in a dramatic fashion to close at an over tree-month high. My model went long, but I am not too comfortable with the upside.

Initial resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance is perched at 107.95 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Initial support is seen at 106.25. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied for the third consecutive day on Monday, as horrible inflation numbers make further rate hikes a done deal. My model is long, but the short term outlook is bearish.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9675. Below 1.9640, the next level is 1.9585.

Good resistance now comes at 1.9760. 1.9801 follows. Above the pivot high at 1.9850, there is further resistance at 1.9960.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed from the lowest level since April 24, but remains below the bottom of a triangle. More weakness seems to remain in store, but only in the medium term. Short term, it looks strong.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0340. This is followed by 1.0390 and 1.0490.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.0270. This is followed by 1.0150. Distant support is at 1.0100.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Currency Technical Report

2008-06-10T04:18:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD

Resistance : 1,5620-30/ 1,5655/ 1,5670/ 1,5700/ 1,5730
Support : 1,5550/ 1,5520-25/ 1,5490-00/ 1,5450

Comment : The wider sideways formation that sets the ranges for euro's move these last months was confirmed for one more time, as bears gained momentum leading euro to a decline near the limits of the downtrend reversal. Bulls in the lows of 1.5400 were helped by the chairman of ECB Jean Claude Trichet, who warned about a potential rate hike, while bears were helped by comments regarding strong dollar from Bush and Henry Paulson mentioning the intervention as way of supporting currencies. The only thing that is certain is that there is an attempt from both sides to support their currency and we will wait to see the results…

After yesterday's facts, it is very possible that we are in the formation of a downward wave within the sideways consolidation, which may be as quick as the previous upward wave.

The short trend is now bearish and a downward break of 1.5560 will cancel any possibility of an upward resumption.

Below 1.5560, next targets are at the area of 1.5470-90, which is considered as a strong support level. Next targets are in the base of the formation in the area of 1.5370-00, but we will be cautious regarding its immediate reach for the time being.

The area of 1.5620 is the first resistance level, followed by a more important at 1.5660-70. If yesterday's bears have strength, retracements should not breach the area of 1.5670. In an opposite case, the area of 1.5730-50 could be reached again. If high volatility occurs it will be difficult to have a clear strategy and we should wait for a more clear view in the short term. For the time being we will use any opportunity within the ranges of the wider sideways consolidation...

TRADING EUR/USD : Our strategy regarding sell positions proved accurate, even if the decline was further than expected, opening our sell positions at the lower levels. The current trend is bearish and it will be followed until important support levels are reached.

Sell positions will be tried in any retracement towards 1.5650-60 area, adding more at 1.5700 with stops above 1.5730. Sell positions would also emerge at a potential break of 1.5555, having as target the area of 1.5480-90. In that case, stops should be set above the 1.5620 area...In the area of 1.5470-90 we will turn on the bulls side, with stops below 1.5445...

Daily Forex Market Commentary

2008-05-27T17:09:00.000-07:00

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar had an outside day but sank to a near one-week low and my model went short. Following another decline today, the medium-term upmove should resume.

Key support remains at 1.5655. A close below this level would signal a sustained decline and the next level would become 1.5610. This is followed by 1.5570 and 1.5460.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.5740. The next level is 1.5811. Above 1.5865, euro/dollar has distant resistance at 1.6020.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied on Tuesday, but remained stuck in an inside range. My model went long. Expect another attempt on the upside today.

Immediate resistance is now at 104.38, which is the top of the inside range. Strong resistance follows at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Below 103.80, key support is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. A bid support is seen at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar failed its aggressive decline and reduced losses on the close on Tuesday. My model remains long, but the risk is on the downside.

Immediate support is at 1.9760. This is followed by 1.9645. Only a break below 1.9545 would jeopardize the cable's recovery.

Initial resistance remains at 1.9850. Above it, there is further resistance at 1.9910. Distant resistance is at 2.0030.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied on Tuesday, but my model remains barely short. The immediate outlook is bullish.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0370. If 1.0410 gives way, expect a test of 1.0510 and even of the distant resistance at 1.0623.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.0305. This is followed by 1.0200, 1.0130 and 1.0105.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading
http://www.gftforex.com

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

2008-05-26T16:51:00.000-07:00

Last Updated: May 27, 2008 - 00:01am
(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

Clock (GMT+7):

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May 27, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))
19:00 GBP/USD up (Buy)

by www.GainScope.com

Daily Forex Market Commentary

2008-05-20T20:25:00.000-07:00

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading

The dollar was trashed on Tuesday amid a soaring oil price and tanking stocks. There are some intermediary inversed head-and-shoulders patterns in euro and cable and my model now went short dollars against some of the European currencies, and this makes sense. The US currency should remain under pressure today, but watch out for the Ifo report.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar rallied to its highest level since late April and the interim inversed head-and-shoulders I was wondering about the previous day came to fruition. My model remains long. The rising channel remains in place.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.5680. Above 1.5740, euro/dollar has distant resistance at 1.5865.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5595. The next level is d 1.5510. This is followed by 1.5397

Oscillators are bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen bored its way out from an inside range and coined a one-week low. My model remains short and the downside remains favored.

Initial support is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. The next big level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Distant support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.

Immediate resistance is at 104.10. Strong resistance remains at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surged to a near two-week high and this forced my model to go long after being short a day earlier. At least I like move, especially since it formed interim inversed head-and-shoulders

Initial resistance now moved to 1.9719. Strong resistance is seen nearby at 1.9730. Above 1.9766, there is further resistance at 1.9880. Distant resistance is at 2.0030.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9645. This is followed by 1.9585. Only a break below 1.9495 jeopardized the cable's recovery.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Daily Forex Market Commentary

2008-05-19T18:37:00.000-07:00

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading

The dollar rallied unexpectedly hard on Monday to reverse all or most of the gains made a day earlier. My model went long dollars against some of the European currencies, but with the S&P returning all of their gains, the US currency should come under pressure today.
Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell from its highest level since May 1 but had trouble at 1.5500. Are we still facing an interim inversed head-and-shoulders? Hard to tell as yet, but the rising channel remains in place.

Initial resistance is at 1.5540. the next level remains 1.5600. Above 1.5645, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.5685.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5450. The next level is d 1.5415. This is followed by 1.5287.

Oscillators are bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen struggled higher on Monday, but got stuck in an inside range. My model remains short. The downside remains favored.

Initial support is at 104.00. Strong support follows at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. The next big level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Distant support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.

Immediate resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surrendered all of its gains made on Friday and this forced my model to go short. I don't like this and I need convincing that the pound is so weak here.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9440. This is followed by 1.9400 and 1.9363. Only a break below 1.9363 spells trouble for cable.

Initial resistance now moved to 1.9520. Above 1.9570, there is further resistance at 1.9633. This is followed by 1.9695.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

2008-05-13T21:09:00.000-07:00

Last Updated: Mei 14, 2008 - 00:35am

(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

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May 14, 2008

At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))

15:00 GBP/USD up (Buy)

19:00 GBP/USD down (Sell)

Weekly Forex Signals

2008-03-17T05:28:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD - Next target "1.60" as Euro heading to new record highs.

LONG SIGNAL	SHORT SIGNAL
EUR/USD Buy a break of resistance level at 1.5902 Buy a break of resistance level at 1.6000 Buy a bounce at 1.5735	Sell a break of support level at 1.5735 Sell a break of support level at 1.5600 Sell a failure of breaking the resistance 1.5902

Fundamental

The dollar plunged across the board on Monday as new liquidity-boosting measures launched by the Federal Reserve over the weekend failed to assuage worries about the health of the U.S. banking sector.

The Federal Reserve took more emergency measures to stem the fast-spreading financial crisis, cutting its discount rate on Sunday and opening up discount window lending to major investment banks, a tool not used since the Great Depression.

Technical

Euro still looks set to see an eventual move through $1.60, with a number of channel projections coming in around $1.63-1.65. We should see the $1.57/1.5650 area provide support on the pullbacks.

The Euro may extend its rally to as high as $1.60, based on charts that predict price movements. The Market still is in an uptrend; according to many indicators like RSI, which is giving us a clear bullish signal, MACD breaks the equilibrium level and is pointing upwards, Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the middle band.

Recommended Trading Today

2008-03-13T19:21:00.000-07:00

Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar encountered another bout of weakness on Thursday and between the recessionary retails sales and Carlyle bond funds' woes, its weakness should persist. There is faint talk of intervention, but no central bank is breaking down the door to support the US currency. Watch the University of Michigan report for intraday direction, but some short term recovery is likely for the dollar.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar climbed to yet a new record high on Thursday. My model is long since February 14 and I can't complain. The pair remains overbought, but only short-term weakness is possible.

Initial resistance is at 1.5660. Further resistance comes at 1.5760.

Immediate support is at 1.5570. The next level is at 1.5490. Below 1.5415, there is further support at 1.5350.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Recommended Trading Today

Buy at 1.5617 SL 1.5587 TP 1.5667

Recommended Trading Today

2008-03-12T20:21:00.000-07:00

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar exploded to a new record high on Wednesday. To repeat, I still like long positions in line with my model, long since February 14 – only a break below 1.5230 would change that. The pair is certainly overbought, but only short-term weakness is possible.

Immediate support is at 1.5535. The next level is at 1.5490. Below 1.5415, there is further support at 1.5350.

Initial resistance is at 1.5590. Further resistance comes at 1.5660. The next level is now seen at 1.5760.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Recommended Trading Today

Buy at level 15540 SL 15510 and TP 15580

Forex Technical Update

2008-03-09T23:09:00.000-07:00

Euro: Euro hit a record high of 1.5463 after the US non-farm payrolls report but it ended up retreating almost instantaneously as carry trades came under pressure and news that Fed will expand its TAF (term auction facility) hit the market. Eurozone economic data continues to be firm and hence further up move is expected. Euro overall traded in a range of 150 pips and closed stronger at 1.5354 compared to its opening levels of 1.5388. Its daily charts shows an highly overbought position, while the 4-hrly shows strong buying pressure. Immediate support is seen at the levels of 1.5369 (21 hourly EMA) breaking which it will correct futher down to 1.5341 (55 hourly EMA). Longs can be initiated at those levels . (Eur/Usd-1.5379).

Pound: Despite the lack of any UK economic data, the British pound soared to a year to date high of 2.0215. UK PPI data will be released today and higher inflation numbers will further boost the pair to higher levels. The pair gained 110 pips from its opening levels of 2.0105 and closed stronger at 2.0135. The daily chart is in overbought position while the 4-hrly still shows some buying pressure. Immediate resistance is seen at the levels of 2.0245 (50% retracement weekly charts). Look for opportunities to short at those levels. (Gbp/Usd- 2.0180).

Yen: USDJPY pair was very volatile on Friday, it further tumbled to an 8-year low of 101.40. The pair traded in a range of 178 pips and later strengthened in US session on the back of strong US equity markets in early US session and news that FED would pump 200 billion dollars into the banking system to address liquidity pressures in the funding markets and hence closed stronger at 102.66. Its daily, 4-hourly, and hrly charts are in oversold positions. Immediate resistance is seen at the levels of 103.05 (21 hourly EMA and 38.2% retracement hrly charts). Avoid initiating any positions at current levels. (Usd/Jpy- 102.22). by : actionforex.com

2008-03-05T02:21:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD

Current level-1.5167

The currency pair is in an uptrend unfolding from the 1.2484 bottom and probably ahead of a significant reversal on weekly basis. The technical indicators are rising and the trading is situated above the 50-day and the 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.4302 and 1.3697.

With the recent top at 1.5275, the upmove from 1.4614 is probably completed, so expect a larger corrective phase, aiming at 1.5021 support. Intraday allow upward activity, limited to 1.5234, followed by a slide below 1.5141

Resistance		Support
intraday	intraweek	intraday	intraweek
1.5241	1.5294	1.5161	1.5073
1.5294	1.5434	1.5073	1.4950

The Dollar’s Decline Continues To Break Records, Next Fed Cut Looking Deeper And Deeper

2008-02-28T20:44:00.000-08:00

The dollar can’t seem to catch a break. The beleaguered currency marked yet another momentous drop against most of its liquid counterparts, chalking up its biggest three day selloff in four years. And, leading that charge was the EUR/USD, which marked a fresh record high for the third consecutive session. Feeding the insatiable desire to sell dollars was yet another round of scheduled and unscheduled disappointing fundamentals. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House today more or less covered the same dour highlights from yesterday’s delivery to the Senate. The few notable differences between the two speeches came from the Q&A. In response to one particular question, the central banker suggested that it would be “fair” to suggest it is tougher for the Fed to respond now than it was during the last recession back in 2001. This may have been taken to mean by some that the economy is heading for another recession; but what Bernanke was actually referring to was the unwanted mix of quickly receding economic growth and the elevated level of front-line inflation. Addressing the dollar specifically, the Fed Chairman further said the policy group was monitoring its record breaking decline, yet he suggested he still believed foreign investors still had confidence in the world’s largest economy. While Bernanke continued to talk up the struggling greenback, the market was also absorbing disappointing readings from the fourth quarter GDP revisions and a round of second tier employment numbers. Annualized growth shirked forecasts for annualized expansion to accelerate slightly by holding at its five-year low 0.6 percent clip. Noteworthy shifts from the sector breakdown were downward revisions to personal consumption, business investment, commercial construction and government spending. In fact, the only positive change came from exports whose 0.9 percent contribution to GDP is barely keeping the US economy above water. Elsewhere on the docket, initial jobless claims in the week through February 23rd jumped well beyond the consensus to 373,000 – just off of the two year highs from last month. Pricing in this dour data, Fed Fund futures have moved from fully pricing in a 50 bp rate cut on March 18th to a 36 percent chance of 75 bps. ....more....

Forex Market Commentary

2008-02-26T20:01:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD

Initial resistance now comes at 1.5045. Above it, resistance comes at 1.5078. Distant resistance looms at 1.5165.

Immediate support moved up to 1.4970. The next level is 1.4865. Below 1.4790, there is further support at 1.4715. Distant support is at 1.4640.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell within an inside range on Tuesday. Mixed trading is likely today.

Immediate support comes at 107.25. Further support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Immediate resistance moved back to 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Strong resistance follows at 108.75. Distant resistance lies at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied on Tuesday to a 3 ½-week high and a break above 1.9820 warrants further strength. My model remains long since Thursday and the recovery should continue in the medium term.

Initial resistance comes at 1.9897. A break above this level would signal a further rally to 1.9935. This is followed by 1.9960 and 2.0035.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9750. The next level follows at 1.9645.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell to a 3 ½-week on Tuesday, and my model remains short. Mixed to lower trading is likely today.

Immediate support comes at 1.0706. Below 1.0620, support is pegged at 1.0510..

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0810. The next levels are 1.0870,.0960 and 1.1000. Distant resistance comes at 1.1065.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

http://www.actionforex.com
Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading

Market Commentary

2008-02-25T18:33:00.000-08:00

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar traded sideways after nailing a three-week high on Friday. It's been marching higher since February 8 . The pair is slightly overbought, but sideways to higher trading is favored.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied on Monday after the support of a rising trendline held. Mixed to higher trading is likely today

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar traded sideways on Monday.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Recommanded Trading

2008-02-22T00:27:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD 1.4804

EUR/USD Open 1.4813 High 1.4833 Low 1.4625 Close 1.4759

The currency couple EUR/USD broke its short term resistances at 1.4635 and 1.4700, but than the buying of the Euro continued, which moved the Euro further to 1.4833 yesterday, which is the first resistance for today. Successful break at this level would lead to targeting the absolute record 1.4960, followed by the psychological 1.5000. In downward direction support is given by the level 1.4700, followed by 1.4635, and 1.4580.

Technical resistance levels: 1.4835 1.4960 1.5000
Technical support levels: 1.4700 1.4635 1.4580

Trading range: 1.4790 - 1.4865

Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.4804 SL 1.4772 TP 1.4854

Forex Market Summary

2008-02-18T20:01:00.000-08:00

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was a quiet session of trade as markets in the US were closed on the back of President's Day Holiday, as bearish sentiment followed through from Friday's poor data readings. Market is expected to resume on Tuesday although the only event worthy of noting would be Fed Official Stern speaking on the state of the US economy.

The Euro (EUR) gave up some of its late rally seen last week on the back of poor data. With the absence of data coupled with US holidays, the Euro held broadly in a range trading technically for much the day. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4611 and a high of 1.4689 before closing the day at 1.4655.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) demand for services saw its largest drop in three months with Tertiary Index fell by -0.6% from the previous month. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.76 and a high of 108.09 before closing the day at 107.65.

The Sterling (GBP) continued its decline versus the dollar, further tumbling on news that that the U.K. government plans to nationalize troubled U.K. financial institution Northern Rock Plc. Traders pushed the pair lower on concerns that other U.K. financial institution might have significant exposure to asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9477 and a high of 1.9522 before closing the day at 1.9603.

http://www.actionforex.com

2008-02-06T20:36:00.001-08:00

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

Last Updated: Feb 12, 2008 - 01:25am

(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

Clock (GMT+7):

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Feb 12, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))
15:45 GBP/USD up (Buy)
=====================================
Feb 11, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB)
15:45 GBP/USD up (Buy)

ALWAYS put a Stop Loss (SL) MAX 40 pips, and Target Profit (TP) starting from 10 to 70 pips, you can use a trailing stop too

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK !
By : www.Gainscope.com

Recession Fear and Dollar Loathing in Las Vegas

2008-02-06T01:18:00.001-08:00

Judging by today's selling frenzy on Wall Street, it looks like the sky is falling in on us. And the time has come to ask some important questions. Is it safe to say that the recession is finally here? If we are in a recession, how long will the recession last? Will heavy consumer debt, a growing federal budget gap, and rising prices make this recession worse than Americans have experienced over the past two decades? Will the situation evolve into the worst financial crisis since World War Two? (By the way, legendary investor George Soros seems to think so)

Sometimes the questions are more important than answers, especially in the chaotic environment we now find ourselves in. The right questions can act as compasses to steer us through this turbulent time. I'm not going to pretend I know the perfect questions to ask, but here's the biggest question on my mind:

Will the Fed lose their ability to stimulate the economy during a recession?

After today's doom and gloom, the street is calling on the Fed for another emergency interest rate cut. But there's a problem: rates can't go below zero. The Fed may continue to cut interest rates, but they must be careful not to run out of ammunition. In other words, if the federal funds are lowered beyond a certain point, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.

George Soros believes we are entering the greatest financial crisis in 60 years because the Fed is losing it's ability to stimulate the economy. Soros explains why this crisis is different: "The current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency." He adds: "The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years."

For decades foreigners have been buying U.S. bonds, keeping U.S. rates low. It's hard to quantify the impact of foreign investors, but a 2006 study by Professors Francis and Veronica Warnock at the University of Virginia found that U.S. long-term interest rates would be about 90 basis points higher without foreign buyers. In a nutshell, Soros believes the greenback is losing its place as the world's reserve currency. Soros feels that foreigners will stop buying U.S. bonds, i.e. the end of dollar hegemony, which will place upward pressure on U.S. rates. With U.S. yields rising due to foreigners running for the exits, the Fed's interest rate cuts become impotent. It goes without saying that the recession could turn into a multi headed monster if Fed interest rate cuts became impotent.

The consensus seems to be that foreigners will turn their backs on U.S. assets, which would validate Soros' argument. I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm going to suggest the market is too quick to jump to the conclusion that the dollar will lose its place as the world's reserve currency. Let me explain with an example:

Soros' argument of dollar collapse makes sense if the market is a cold computer that rationally incorporates every piece of information. Why should foreign governments hold dollar assets when the dollar has lost more than 20% of value against its main trading partners since February 2002? But the market is made up of emotionally-charged humans, and humans suffer from bounded rationality. In other words, humans can't be 100% rational 100% of the time. If humans were 100% rational 100% of the time, Las Vegas would be a ghost town in the desert.

As humans, we suffer from loss aversion. Loss aversion is the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses as opposed to achieving gains. As an example, choose between these two options:

Option A: A sure loss of $890
Option B: A 90% chance to lose $1,000 and a 10% chance to lose nothing.

In this situation, a large majority of decision makers will prefer the gamble in Option B, even though the other choice is statistically superior.

The valuation losses of foreign assets due to the sharp decline of the dollar will hurt foreign investors, and I argue here that foreign investors are in no way different from a gambler losing money at a roulette table. Moody's released the following calculations: Assuming the exchange rate of the dollar falls from about 0.67 euro currently to 0.50 euro over the next two years - a very bold assumption - China is expected to lose close to $260 billion in valuation losses, while Japan could lose $190 billion. Is China willing to risk a $260 billion loss by sticking with the dollar?

I admit that I am proposing an unlikely scenario, but it is conceivable that foreign governments will choose to hang on to their losing dollar positions, in the same way a gambler would have a tendency to "double down" when things go wrong, rather than admit a loss. At the very least, this argument suggests that governments will take their time unwinding dollar positions, which would limit the medium-term upside pressure on U.S. yields. We are, after all, only human, and there are signs that that dollar could rebound towards the end of 2008: the U.S. current account is improving, fear-motivated bond flows would perversely support the dollar, and investors are focused on relative growth prospects rather than absolute borrowing costs. If aggressive cuts by the Fed can stimulate the economy, then the U.S. will definitely lead the way in terms of economic recovery, and the dollar could rebound.

If foreign investors choose to "double down" and stay invested in the dollar, U.S. yields won't rise as much as Soros predicts, and the Fed's interest rate cuts may remain potent, limiting the damage a recession may cause. If only it was so straightforward...

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

2008-02-05T21:58:00.000-08:00

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

Last Updated: Feb 6, 2008 - 01:25am

(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

Clock (GMT+7):

Click Here for Your Time Zone Converter

Feb 6, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))
19:50 GBP/USD down (Sell)

====================================

Feb 5, 2008

At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))

15:50 GBP/USD down (Sell)
21:20 GBP/USD up (Buy)

ALWAYS put a Stop Loss (SL) MAX 40 pips, and Target Profit (TP) starting from 10 to 70 pips, you can use a trailing stop too

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK !
By : www.Gainscope.com

Suharto buried in state funeral

2008-01-28T04:38:00.001-08:00

Suharto's flag-covered coffin was flown to Solo for the funeral

Former Indonesian President Suharto, who died on Sunday at the age of 86, has been buried in a state funeral.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono oversaw the ceremony at the Suharto family mausoleum near the city of Solo.

Suharto, who ruled Indonesia for more than three decades, was credited with leading his country from poverty to relative development.

But he was dogged by allegations of corruption, political repression and serious human rights abuses.

Hundreds of thousands of suspected communists were killed as he rose to power in the 1960s.

He was ousted by mass protests in 1998 and in recent years suffered from poor health - one of the reasons why he never faced trial.

Risk Dominates Swissy

2008-01-28T04:35:00.000-08:00

The Swiss franc will remain robust, but there is a strong probability that a near-term peak was seen last week

The Swiss franc weakened back to lows beyond 1.61 and 1.0950 against the Euro and dollar respectively on Friday. Risk tolerances improved which lessened immediate demand and the franc was also still technically overbought after the recent strong gains.

The franc moves are likely to remain dominated by degrees of risk aversion and the currency pared losses as Wall Street drifted lower.

National Bank President Roth stated that the recent franc gains were welcome and a natural result of rising risk aversion. The bank's stance will provide some important underlying currency support.

The franc strengthened back to 1.0930 in early Europe on Monday as Asian equity prices lost ground, although there was not the sense of panic seen during the first half of next week

Investica
http://www.investica.co.uk

Risk Aversion Eases

2008-01-25T04:26:00.000-08:00

Immediate demand for the Swiss franc and Japanese yen will remain lower in the short term, although further heavy selling pressure is unlikely at this stage.

The Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week, allied with the fiscal support package and hopes that a support package can be put together for the US bond insurance companies has had a significant impact in easing global risk aversion levels. Global stock markets have rallied strongly with particularly sharp gains for the German DAX index.

The latest US and European data has also not supported the case for a rapid plunge into recession conditions. The German IFO index rose slightly to 103.4 in January from 103.0 previously. US jobless claims were again lower than expected at 301,000 in the latest week from a revised 302,000 previously. Existing home sales fell by 2.2% to an annual rate of 4.89mn, although prices were little changed and inventories fell back to below 10 months supply.

The easing of fear has weakened short-term demand for the yen and Swiss franc. From highs near 105.0 against the dollar, the yen has weakened to test levels beyond 107.50 while the Euro has regained ground strongly against both currencies. Caution will prevail, but the yen and Swiss franc saw important medium-term peaks this week.

Investica
http://www.investica.co.uk

Mid-Day Report: Yen Strengthen Continues after Falling Global Equity Markets

2008-01-22T05:12:00.000-08:00

Risk aversion dominates the market today, following sharp decline in Asia and European equity markets. US markets is closed for Martin Luther King day today. Activities may slow a bit but overall sentiments will likely remain unchanged. That is, yen will continue to be firm while other major currencies except the dollar will likely remain weak. Particular weakness will be in the Aussie, which was additionally pressured by weakness in gold prices. Euro, on the other hand will continue to be soft as markets readjusting their expectation on ECB policy path following recent dovish comments from ECB officials.

On the Economic data front, Germany PPI dropped -0.1% mom in Dec, with yoy rate unchanged at 2.5%. Swiss combined PPI dropped -0.1% mom in Dec, with yoy rate unchanged at 3.0% too. Canadian wholesale sales rose 0.3% mom in Nov, missing expectation of 0.5%. Released in Asia, Australia PPI missed expectation and rose 0.6% qoq, w.8% yoy only in Q4.

Two central banks are scheduled to announce rate decisions tomorrow. BoJ is widely expected to announce that they'll leave rates unchanged at 0.5% in the coming Asia session. BoC, on the other hand, is expected to cut rates by 25bps for the second consecutive months to 4.0%. ....Read more....

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

2008-01-14T20:43:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.4846 and 1.4825(main), where correction is possible.Break would give 1.4803, where correction also may be. Then 1.4780. Break of the latter would result in 1.4757. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4718. Continuation will give 1.4678.

Today's resistance: - 1.4909, 1.4924 and 1.4943 (main). Break would give 1.4962, where a correction is possible. Then 1.4983. Break of the latter would result in 1.5008. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.5022. Continuation will give 1.5036.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 107.52 and 107.21(main). Break would bring 106.98, where correction is possible. Then 106.75. If a strong impulse, we would see 106.48. Continuation would give 107.56.

Today's resistance: -108.59 и 108.90(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 109.13, where also a correction may be. Then 109.45. If a strong impulse, we would see 109.86. Continuation will give 110.11.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 12 690.00, 12 653.10, 12 577.40 and 12 549.34(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12 526.77, where correction also can be. Then 12 506.84. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 12 476.26. Continuation will bring 12 451.64 and 12 414.37.

Today's resistance: - 12 806.37(main), where a a delay and correction may happen.Break would bring 12 837.90, where a correction may happen.Then 12 853.11, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12 875.62. Continuation would bring 12 958.94.

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

2008-01-08T22:20:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.4678 and 1.4647 (main), where correction is possible.Break would give 1.4624, where correction also may be. Then 1.4603. Break of the latter would result in 1.4582. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4553. Continuation will give 1.4529.

Today's resistance: - 1.4748, 1.4771 and 1.4785(main). Break would give 1.4806, where a correction is possible. Then 1.4831. Break of the latter would result in 1.4852. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4870. Continuation will give 1.4884.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 108.68 è 108.56(main). Break would bring 108.32, where correction is possible. Then 108.11. If a strong impulse, we would see 107.88. Continuation would give 107.56.

Today's resistance: - 109.54 and 109.83(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 110.14, where also a correction may be. Then 110.32. If a strong impulse, we would see 110.57. Continuation will give 110.73 and 110.94.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 12 554.00 and 12 532.15(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12 512.35, where correction also can be. Then 12 493.13. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 12 466.00. Continuation will bring 12 440.39.

Today's resistance: - 12 667.50 and 12 691.40(main), where a a delay and correction may happen.Break would bring 12 737.70, where a correction may happen.Then 12 780.00, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12 830.63. Continuation would bring 12 858.66.

Pro FX Commentary: USDJPY

2008-01-03T20:52:00.000-08:00

Price: 108.94

Resistance:	109.10	109.35	109.74	110.26
Support:	108.77	108.57	108.22	107.88

Bias:

Cautiously, while 108.22-57 supports I feel we should see gains above 109.74 for 111.43

Daily Bullish:	Loss of 109.20 has seen additional losses down to 108.22 with a bullish divergence developing. While I can't really come up with a good wave relationship to suggest that 108.22 was an intermediate low it does look like a spike bottom and has produced potential for an inverse head & shoulders. Thus if we see a move back above 109.10 and then 109.74 look for a stronger rally through to 110.25 at least. However, above here will be required to maintain the upward momentum for 110.80 & 111.43.
MT Bullish:	I am less certain of the upside now and while a recovery to 111.43 is possible break here and at 112.20 will be needed to suggest a possibility of seeing 114.65 again. (4th January)
Daily Bearish:	Losses stalled just above the 108.15 support. I have to be cautious given the possible spike bottom but without particularly strong Fibonacci relationships in the 108.22 low we must be aware of the risk of additional losses. Below 108.57 will pressure the 108.22 low and extends losses to 107.88 minimum and quite possibly the 107.21-52 area which I feel would hold if seen.
MT Bearish:	I need to recheck the cycles but there does seem downside potential through to March. If this is the case I suspect we could see a retest close to the 100-102 area. However, this shouldn't occur directly. (4th January)

Yen Rebounds on Inflation, Dollar Remains Pressured

2007-12-28T04:20:00.000-08:00

The Japanese yen was pressured before the Tokyo fix but rebounds strongly across the board after that, following upside surprise in Japanese inflation data. A bunch of data was released from Japan overnight but the most important was definitely the Nov CPI data which surged to 0.6% yoy, much stronger than expectation of 0.3%. Core CPI also surged to 0.4% yoy, fastest pace in almost 10 years. Though the rise in inflation was mainly due to record energy prices. The so called core-core measure, the CPI ex food and energy, remained negative and fell -0.1% yoy in Nov. Nevertheless, the data still suggested an apparent end to the deflationary abyss which lasted for more than a decade. Other data from Japan saw unemployment rate dropping back to 3.8% in Nov, household spending dropping -0.6% yoy, industrial production rose 2.9% yoy, retail sales rose 1.6% yoy.

Elsewhere, dollar remains generally weak across the board. Markets will turn to today's Chicago PMI and Nov new home sales fro US. Sterling remains generally weak today and today's nationwide house price, which is expected to slow further to 5.3% yoy in Dec, may continue to limit Sterling's rebound. Swissy was lifted additionally safe haven buying on uncertainties after assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and geopolitical risks. KOF leading indicator is expected to dip from 2.02 to 1.98 in Dec.
EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4516; (P) 1.4577; (R1) 1.4686; More

EUR/USD turns sideway after reaching as high as 1.4638 and remains firm. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.4559 minor support holds and further rise is expected to see towards 1.4750 resistance. As discussed before, sustained break of short term falling trend line resistance (now at 1.4592) will suggest that corrective fall from 1.4966 has already completed after just failing 100% projection of 1.4966 to 1.4524 from 1.4750 at 1.4308. Break of 1.4750 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.5 psychological resistance. On the downside, below 1.4559 will indicate that an intraday top is formed and turn intraday outlook neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 1.1639 has made a top at 1.4966 after failing 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 which overlaps with 1.5 psychological resistance. However, with 1.3851 resistance turned support remains intact, subsequent fall from 1.4966 is treated as correction to rise from 1.3360 only. Break of 1.4750 resistance will confirm that such correction has completed and bring retest of 1.5 cluster resistance. Otherwise, another fall could still be seen to dip into 1.4014/4281 support zone before completing this correction.

USD/JPY Could Spike Through 114 On Weak Japanese Business Sentiment

2007-12-23T16:11:00.000-08:00

BSI Lg Manufacturing (QoQ) (Q4) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EST)
Expected:---
Previous: 7.7

BSI Lg All Industry (QoQ) (Q4) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EST)
Expected: ---
Previous: 6.2

What Are The Markets Facing?

Business sentiment in Japan is likely to falter in Q4 as a stronger yen hurts exporters and a global credit crunch increases borrowing costs and damages prospects for growth worldwide. Last quarter, the Business Sentiment Index for not only manufacturers, but all industries, proved to be optimistic as companies were confident that the economy would recover after contracting during Q2. This time around, however, the situation is quite different, and businesses are rightfully worried. In fact, the Bank of Japan's Tankan index of manufacturer sentiment fell more than expected in Q4 to 19 from 23, and over the past two years, large shifts in the Tankan reading tend to coincide with movements in the BSI. The performance of businesses in Japan is of great concern to the BOJ, as the bank's Governor, Toshihiko Fukui, said last week that he was concerned falling profits would hamper wage growth and put a dent consumer spending. Nevertheless, neither of these factors have shown sharp improvements in recent months, so if anything, the greater concern for Fukui may be that he will be prevented from pursuing further rate normalization before he leaves his post at the central bank early next year. Indeed, the most recent policy meeting resulted in a unanimous vote to leave rates steady, as even the sole hawk on the monetary policy board, Atsushi Mizuno, backed off in light of the tumultuous credit market conditions and its threat to the economies of the US, UK, and Europe. Furthermore, the BOJ has downgraded its assessments of the economy for the first time in three years, and with inflation showing few signs of building, the markets are actually starting to consider the potential for a rate cut before Fukui's departure. As a result, a disappointing BSI release may only lead this speculation to be exacerbated amongst traders.

Bonds - 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds

Japanese government bonds have fallen back quite a bit since failing to push through resistance at 137.11, though declines have paused at trendline support at 136.40. Japanese economic data early next week could help give the contract a boost, as souring business confidence raises the risk the BOJ may actually cut in the near-term. On the other hand, additional gains in the Nikkei could weigh JGBs towards 136.10.

US Non-Farm and Non-Manufacturing Figures On Tap

2007-12-05T03:40:00.000-08:00

Economic News

USD

Yesterday was void of any significant news from the U.S, so the greenback did not experience much movement against the EUR. However the greenback did strengthen noticeably against the CAD on the back of the unexpected Canadian interest rate cut to 4.25%. The main market movement yesterday was still driven by comments by the Fed that the subprime crisis will have a significant drawback on U.S growth. This attitude by the Fed has unsettled the financial markets again and shoved global stocks lower, leading to a risk-averse attitude by investors and a subsequent reversal of carry trades. Therefore the USD saw most of its action yesterday against the high yielding currencies, where it gained noticeable ground on the back of the carry trade reversal. On the other hand the greenback lost ground against the JPY as the increasing concerns about the credit crisis prompted investors to cut back on risky positions.

Looking ahead, today is filled with significant U.S data which may prompt some dollar movement. The most important news out today will be the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which is expected to release well below its previous figure of 106K at 50K. This figure will be closely watched by investors for an indication of where Friday's all important NFP report will release, even though the accuracy of the ADP remains questionable. If this figure surprises on the upside the dollar could claw back some lost ground against the EUR. However although there is a string of data releases expected today it seems that the market will remain cautious ahead of Friday's NFP report, but is also important to note that the increasing speculation of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed could shove the greenback onto its recently familiar slippery slope.

EUR/USD

2007-11-30T04:52:00.001-08:00

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4696; (P) 1.4770; (R1) 1.4817; More

EUR/USD continues to trade in tight range above 1.4711 support today. Outlook remains unchanged. Correction from 1.4966 is still expected to extend lower as long as 1.4859 resistance holds, probably towards 1.4519 clusters support. Above 1.4859 will indicate that fall from 1.4966 has possibly completed and bring retest of 1.5 cluster resistance.

As discussed before, while rise from 1.4014 is completed, it's early to confirm that rise from 1.3360 has completed too. Focus is now on 1.4519 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4014 to 1.4966 at 1.4490). Decisive break of this support zone will add much credence to the case that rally from 1.3360 has completed too after failing 1.5 key medium resistance and bring deeper correction to 1.4014/4281 support zone before resuming the long term up trend. But strong rebound above this level will suggest another rise should be seen before making a medium term top.

In the bigger picture, regardless of internal structure, medium term up trend from 1.1639 remains in force and is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and is now close to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which will overlap with 1.5 psychological resistance. Upside could be limited by this resistance initially on overbought condition. Sustained trading above this key resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally is still underway to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048. On the downside, firm break of 1.3851 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal that this up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Otherwise, long term outlook remains bullish.

Citigroup Support The Dollar

2007-11-27T23:00:00.000-08:00

U.S dollar took back the losses and straightened against the major currencies after yesterday news that Citigroup Inc. would sell a $7.5 billion stake to the Abu Dhabi government triggered a wave of buying from traders that rely on computer models. That news restored confidence in battered U.S. banks, fueling a steep rally in the stock market.

The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.4832, more than a cent below last week's record highs at $1.4966. The euro zone common currency traded in a seesaw fashion after a strong reading of Germany's Ifo corporate sentiment survey. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said on Tuesday he expected the economic upturn in the euro zone's largest economy to continue in 2008 despite the strong euro.

The dollar rose sharply against the yen in the Tokyo session after the Citi report, sparking the unwinding of short positions on the greenback, and that rally spilled over to other currencies, traders said.

Investors interpreted Citi's move as a sign financial institutions were repairing the damage from a meltdown in the U.S. sub prime mortgage market and the resulting credit crunch, which has been a big factor behind recent dollar weakness.

The dollar pulled away from a 2-1/2-year low against the yen touched on Monday to trade at 109.15, on track for its biggest one day gain since late August. The yen fell broadly as news of the Citi stake sale prompted a recovery in the Nikkei share index, warming demand for relatively riskier assets. However, it is too early to think that the dollar recovers and change direction up.

Today, Investors will be focused on the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m data that will be released at 13:30 GMT and Existing Home Sales at 15:00 GMT.

---Read More---

EUR/USD Daily Forecasts

2007-11-27T19:19:00.000-08:00

technical indicators supporting the dollar

The strategy is to sell at 1.4850, failure of previous resistance level until the target 1.4785.

To strength our analysis we will use the following technical indicators:

MACD bellow the zero line after a bearish cross and pointing down.

RSI stand on 43.2% and pointing dow to over sold area.

MA after bearish crossover of the shorter line.

The target is 110.00 at previous resistance level.

The daily trend is bullish

The target is 110.00 at previous resistance level.

Technical oscillators that supporting the bullish tendency are:

MACD-EMA`s above the zero line and pointing up.

Moving averages of 10 and 20 days, the shorter after a bullish cross.

Daily Forex Outlook: EUR/USD

2007-11-26T04:29:00.000-08:00

The sharp sell-off started from 1.4966 signals potential temporary high. As you know, in the latest midterm analysis, I pointed that I expect that we are topping and at least few months fall should follow with minimum requirement 1.3664 (for more information see the latest midterm analysis). The current fall is impulsive in nature upon me which is very early signal in favor of the presented midterm idea. With an eye on my expectations I entered short on Friday and if the fall resumes, I will add to the short position. A first signal for a resuming of the fall will be below 1.4803 and confirmation - below 1.4783. My expectations for the length of the expected wave 3 down is 1.618 of the length of wave 1 i.e. I expect an immediate sell-off of 300 pips in wave 3. The key resistance is 1.4895 which is 61.8 % retracement of the potential wave 1.

Trading strategy: 06:00 EST; 10:00 GMT

Short position from 1.4867, move the stop loss from 1.4936 to 1.4905, target - opened

Add to the short position on break of 1.4804 (sell stop order at 1.4803), stop loss - 1.4881, target - opened

Confidence level - changed from low to moderate

Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD

2007-11-23T00:39:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD 1.4915

EUR/USD Open 1.4852 High 1.4965 Low 1.4823 Close 1.4906

The Euro convincingly broke the next resistance 1.4955 this morning, but remained under it. The break proves the negative US Dollar sentiment, and the next resistances of the Euro are expected at 1.5000 and 1.5060. In downward direction support is expected at 1.4850, followed by 1.4790, and 1.4730.

Technical resistance levels: 1.4955 1.5000 1.5060
Technical support levels: 1.4850 1.4790 1.4730

Trading range: 1.4905 - 1.4975

Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.4915 SL 1.4885 TP 1.4965

yesterday we made +6 pips profit on EUR/USD from the following signal:

6:10 GMT Buy EUR/USD at 1.4858 SL 1.4832 TP 1.4908 exited at 6:19 GMT

Currency Pair Daily Forecasts

2007-11-13T18:40:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD Daily Technical Reports

The last break of Monday's lows in early oversold trading triggered a sharp rebound that has been stymied by the Nov 9 low at 1.4635 and the 50% of the 1.4750/1.4520 slide also at 1.4635. 1.4665 is the 61.8% and the late Asia high from Sunday night. 1.4575 is hourly swing low support and the 200-hr MA.

Indicators show:

RSI pointing up

MACD after a bullish cross

The market strategy will be with the primary trend, Buy at 1.4575 targeting to new high.

USD/JPY Daily Technical Reports

Long trade taken as prices cleared the hourly trend from 114.80 at 100.40. The hallmarks of an oversold daily bottom are now seen in the daily studies, but the speed of the recent slide makes reversal-on-close pivot points too far away for a confirmation worth using. The 21.4% of the 115.93/109.13 move at 110.60 now cleared. 111.75 is the target

Indicators show:

RSI pointing up

MACD after a bullish cross

The market strategy is Buy a break of 111.05 targeting to 111.75 and second target at 112.80

GBP/USD Daily Technical Reports

The market now looks to be backfilling yesterday"s setbacks from the US session on the light but volatile holiday trade, and is up over 2% on the day. However, today"s highs coincide with the 38.2% fib retracement of the recent 2.1160-2.0525 move, and a lower top is sought by the latter ahead of a resumption of setbacks.

Indicators show:

RSI pointing up

MACD after a bullish cross

The market strategy buy at 2.0705 will be with tight stop, worry might correction will surprise. Break the support level of 2.0680 will be a strong selling signal target to 2.0525.

USD/CHF Daily Technical Reports

Long can be taken in the wake of the bullish divergence hourly bottom made at 1.1227 and with the most enormously oversold daily buy signals in memory on the daily charts. The market targeting to 1.1340, the 21.4% of the 1.1895/1.1190 slide from the Oct 9 high and also near the Nov 8 high at 1.1345.A daily close above the latter adds weight to the bullish reversal.

A failure to break the resistance of 1.1300 will be a selling signal with taget around the levels of 1.1115.

Daily FX Forecast

2007-11-12T08:35:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD

Resistance levels: 1.4630/1.4670/1.4750
Support levels: 1.4540/1.4500/1.4420

EUR/USD has fallen down to 1.4544 low earlier today on the absence of fundamental news today. .No change in our view The uptrend remains intact for further upmove towards 1.4750 and 1.4780 in longer term First Resistance comes around 1.4630 ahead of 1.4660-70 crucial area. On downside, as long as price is below 1.4660 further pullback down to first important Support at 1.4420 .may be seen over the next trading days .

Strategy-neutral.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels: 2.0800/2.0880/2.1000
Support levels: 2.0660/2.06000/2.0500

GBP/USD has fallen heavily down below 2.0700 over the last trading days as market looks tired . The bias is bearish currently in shirt and mid term for further pullback down towards 2.0500 in longer term.First strong Support comes around 2.0660-50 region. On the upside, a break above 2.0880 again is needed for resuming the uptrend towards 2.1160 and higher. First Resistance comes around 2.0800.

Strategy-neutral.

USD/JPY

Resistance levels: 110.30/110.70/112.00
Support levels: 109.00/108.50/108.00

USD/JPY has dropped heavily further down towards 109.00 our longer ter target over the last trading session exactly as it was suggested No change in our view. On downside, the bias remains bearish for test below 109.00 previous low towards 108.00 . First minor Support comes around 109.00 On the upside, first minor Resistance comes at 110.30 ahead of 110.70 key one However, a break above 110.70 key Resistance level is needed for correction towards 112.00 . Look to sell on pullback for test of 109.00and 108.00 in longer term

Strategy-neutral.

USD/CHF

Resistance levels: 1.1280/1.1350/1.1400
Support levels: 1.1240/1.1200/1.1160

USD/CHF has recovered to 1.1280 earlier today No change in our view. The bias remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1300 first immediate Resistance for further downmove towards 1.1200 and 1.1160 in mid term First minor Support comes at 1.1240 On the upside, as long as price holds above 1.1240 first Support squeeze towards 1.1340-50 area over the next trading session may be seen . Look to sell again on pullback for test towards 1.1200 and 1.1160..

Strategy-neutral.

EUR/JPY

Resistance levels: 160.70/161.40/162.20
Support levels: 159.00/158.50/157.70

The Cross has dropped heavily directly to 159.00 ( below 161.50 our target) over the last trading sessions as it was suggested No change in our view. The bias has turn into bearish for further downmove for test of 157.70 key Support over the next trading days. Below opens territory for test of 155.20 later this week. First minor Support comes around 159.00 daily bottom On the other side, first immediuate Resistance comes around 160.70 ahead of 161.40 stronger one. Look to sell on pullback for test towards 157.70

Strategy-neutral.

FXDream

Daily FX Forecast

2007-11-07T21:26:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD

Resistance levels: 1.4730/1.4770/1.4800
Support levels: 1.4600/1.4560/1.4440

EUR/USD has reached new record high at 1.4730 earlier today after the news from China No change in our view The uptrend remains intact for further upmove towards 1.4770 and 1.4800 over the next trading days First minor Resistance comes around 1.4730 new record highs On downside, first Support comes at 1.4600 now ahead of 1.4560 stronger one.. Look to buy again on pullback for test towards 1.4800 next target and higher in longer term

Strategy-neutral.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels: 2.1050/2.1100/2.1140
Support levels: 2.0980/2.09000/2.0800

GBP/USD has risen strongly to 2.1050 Resistance earlier today No change in our view. The uptrend remains intact for further upmove towards 2.1100 and higher towards 2.1200 in longer term First Resistance comes at 2.1050 On downside, first Support comes at 2.0980 ahead of 2.0900 key one . Look to buy again on pullback for test towards 2.1100 and higher

Strategy-neutral.

USD/JPY

Resistance levels: 113.60/114.00/114.70
Support levels: 112.60/112.00/111.40

USD/JPY has fallen directly down towards our longer term target at 112.60 earier today as it was suggested after failing to break above 114.70 first Resistance yesterday. No change in our view. A break above 114.00 again is needed for opening territory for further upmove towards 115.40 Friday highs in longer term . First Resistance comes around 113.60 . On downside, the bias remains bearish for test of 112.60 and even 111.40 over the next trading sessions. .

Strategy-neutral.

USD/CHF

Resistance levels: 1.1350/1.1400/1.1450
Support levels: 1.1250/1.1200/1.1160

USD/CHF has fallen heavily further down below 1.1280 our longer term target earlier today as it was suggested We have booked 55 pip profit over the first part and 110 pip for the rest of our Short position The bias remains bearish for further downmove towards 1.1200 and 1.1160 in mid term First Support comes around 1.1250 bottom On the upside, a break above 1.1400 Resistance is needed for reversal towards 1.1620-40 area . . First Resistance comes around 1.1350. Look to sell again on pullback for test towards 1.1200 and 1.1160..

Holding USD/CHF Short at 1.1525,Stop-loss-1.1500( down from 1.1565), Take profit-1.1470( 1.1415).

EUR/JPY

Resistance levels: 166.80/167.10/167.70
Support levels: 165.50/164.90/164.50

The Cross has eased down to 165.60-50 area earlier today exactly as it was suggested in our previous report. In longer term the uptrend remains intact with next target at 168.90 record high. First minor Resistance comes at 166.80 ahead of 167.70 last week top. On downside, in short term below 165.60 Support may cause retest of 164.90 bottom later today and even 164.50 over today and tomorrow.

Strategy-neutral.

FXDream

Fed Cuts Fed Funds and Discount Rate; Moves to Neutral Bias Going Forward

2007-10-31T22:38:00.000-07:00

The Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points today to 4.50%, which combined with the 50-basis point cut in September will "help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise form the disruptions in financial markets." As well, the Fed announced that the discount rate was being lowered by a similar 25 basis points to 5.00%

Although the Fed chose to move interest rates lower, the accompanying text implied little inclination to move further on interest rates. The announcement contained a full paragraph on the upside risks to inflation. Specifically, "increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation." These risks were viewed as essentially balancing the downside risks to growth and indicating that the central bank had moved to a neutral bias.

.......Suggested Readings..........

Forex Trade Suggest Today

2007-10-30T18:30:00.000-07:00

Want to trade? See our signals today here : FIN-PLAN

Analysis Daily

2007-10-26T04:49:00.001-07:00

USD/JPY Open 114.00 High 114.55 Low 113.69 Close 114.20

The Yen climbed against the US Dollar and tested the 114.50 level for second day, which is 60.5% Fibonacci correction of the climb 111.60 - 117.85. Resistance is expected around the levels 114.78, followed by 115.52 and 116.44. Support is seen at 113.25, followed by 112.67 and 111.70.

Technical resistance levels: 114.78 115.52 116.44
Technical support levels: 113.25 112.67 111.70

Trading range: 114.65 - 113.90
Trend: Downward
Sell at 114.52 SL 114.82 TP 114.02

FX Forecast Today

2007-10-24T06:46:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD

Resistance levels: 1.4280/1.4300/1.4350
Support levels: 1.4200/1.4150/1.4120

EUR/USD has recovered back towards 1.4280 Resistance and yesterday high earlier today Today focus will be on US Existing Home Sales numbers at 14:00 GMT The consensus is at 5.25 mln. If the number comes out at 5.0 mln or more negative a break above 1.4280 again may be seen for resuming the uptrend towards 1.4350 record high over the next trading sessions . On downside, if the number comes at 5.5 mln ease back towards first immediate Support around 1.4200 may be seen later today Below 1.4120 key Support reverses the bias for correction towards 1.4020 Look to buy on pullback for test towards 1.4350 over today and tomorrow

Strategy-neutral.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels: 2.0500/2.0540/2.0600/2.0655
Support levels: 2.0400/2.0280/2.0250

GBP/USD has risen back towards 2.0500 yesterday highs earlier today In longer term the uptrend remains intact for test towards 2.0600 and 2.0657 record high. A break above 2.0536-40 Resistance area is needed for further upmove towards 2.0657 record high On downside, stronger than expected numbers from USA may turn price back to first important Support around 2.0400 later today . Below may ease price further down towards 2.0280 key one again over the next couple of days.

Strategy-neutral.

USD/JPY

Resistance levels: 115.00/115.60/116.40
Support levels: 114.20/113.30/112.60

USD/JPY has eased back to 114.20 first Support earlier today .On downside, a break below 114.20 resumes the downtrend towards 113.30 over the next trading sessions and 112.60 in longer term. On the upside, if the 114.20 Support holds ( less possible) retest of 115.00 key Resistance may be seen later today on stronger than expected US fundamental data..

Strategy-neutral.

Suggested Readings : http://www.actionforex.com

ForeX Technical Analysis

2007-10-22T01:31:00.000-07:00

EURUSD

Comment: All very exciting as we set another new record high at 1.4349 but note that Eastern European currencies are doing even better, the Czech koruna at its strongest ever against the Euro. Futures positions still need re-building and the Euro is surprisingly not overbought. Dips towards 1.4200 are seen as medium term buying opportunities for an eventual rally to higher highs.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4320, adding to 1.4245; stop below 1.4130. Target 1.4400 then 1.4550.

Direction of Trade: →↗

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.4306	1.4320
1.4265	1.4350*
1.4245*	1.4400
1.4180	1.4500
1.4140**	1.4550

.... Read more Action Forex.com ...

Dollar/Yen Trimmed Losses after Rallying

2007-10-09T22:19:00.000-07:00

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen trimmed losses on Tuesday to close little changed after rallying to a seven-week high on Monday. The upside is cautiously favored.

Immediate resistance is still seen at 117.50. Above 117.85 there is distant resistance at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.

Strong support remains at 116.85 from another 50-point pivot that targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

..........Read more ActionsForex

Daily Technical Briefing: USDJPY Closing In On Potential Reversal Zone

2007-10-08T08:36:00.001-07:00

Technical Overview

Euro Bullish Above 1.4032
Japanese Yen Close to Key Level
British Pound to Test 2.0500
Swiss Franc Already Turned?
Canadian Dollar Close to a Turn
Australian Dollar Could Trade Back to .8600
New Zealand Dollar In Reversal Zone

EUR/USD

Commentary: The EURUSD is not so clear right now. We see evidence of both a bullish and bearish count. The bullish count has an a-b-c correction ending at 1.4032, which means that the EURUSD should rally to a new high before reversing. For now, the bullish count is favored but a drop below 1.4032 would make change the short term bias to a bearish one. Strength above 1.4281 (if price reaches there) should prove marginal though. We do expect at least a return to 1.3828 (former 4th wave) and possibly 1.3712 (61.8% of 1.3360-1.4281) over the next 3 to 4 weeks regardless of what happens in the next few days.

Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.4032, target 1.4281 (flip to short on drop below 1.4032)

Forex Daily Analysis

2007-10-05T15:01:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD

EUR -same as CHF- keeps up with the retrace environment started on Monday morning, responding to the multiple reasons that the market had to bounce from the already mentioned D extension at 1.4259. Aggressive traders that have taken short positions can already consider to lock in their profits from the selling entries as the market has started to score points at support levels from 1.4110. It now appears that the bull environment will be taking a break for a few days and we will probably see more of bears in charge of EUR. The more conservative point of view will therefore continue to be out of the market during the initial hours of the upcoming session.

New York Session Recap

2007-10-04T21:10:00.000-07:00

Traders focused on interest rates today as both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged as widely expected. The real excitement came as Trichet spoke after the decision giving some insight into future policy decisions. The EUR/USD which had been on a slow grind higher overnight came under pressure after Trichet began his question and answer session. The pair dealt to a low just beneath 1.4070 as Trichet omitted the reference that ECB monetary policy is accommodative, suggesting a more neutral stance. EUR/USD sold off more than 45 points on these comments but could not break down below 1.4065-70. A quick and dramatic reversal ensued leaving many traders scratching their heads and wondering what had just happened. Although the slightly dovish comments by Trichet were EUR/USD negative, the buying interest at the 1.4070 level was too great causing a quick pop back towards 1.4150.

It seems that there is still interest in selling the USD and that many traders still believe that the EUR/USD has more upside potential. Tomorrow’s US Non Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be critical and we could see continued USD selling as the US economy slows. If the NFP comes in weaker then the consensus of +100,000 jobs, look for traders to take EUR/USD back towards all-time highs. (AcFx)

Daily Forex Market Commentary

2007-10-03T20:08:00.001-07:00

The dollar rallied across the board on Wednesday, as expected, and it alleviated most of its oversold condition. Some more weakness is likely here, but the market should then take some profit ahead of the release of the all-mighty US jobless data on Friday.

Euro/dollar

The euro fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday in line with the bearish reversal signal. The pair is pnly slightly overbought today and a further slide to 1.4000 is possible today.

Initial support is at 1.4065. This level is important and a break below would signal that the uptrend is in danger. Below 1.4000, distant support looms at 1.3925.

Immediate resistance looms at 1.4110. The next level is at 1.4180. Above the pivotal high at 1.4281 there is resistance at 1.4310 and at 1.4430.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied on Wednesday and broke loose from a double inside range. It's testing significant resistance at 116.60 and its behavior at this level will provide short-term direction.

The immediate resistance level is at116.85 from a 50-point pivot that target: 116.35 and 117.35.

Initial support is at 116.20. Strong support is at 115.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00. Distant support is at 114.20 from another 50-point pivot that targets 113.70 and 114.70

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

---Read more at actionforex...

Dollar Steady, Yen Weakens Broadly

2007-10-03T16:18:00.000-07:00

Dollar Steady after ADP Employment, Yen Weakens Broadly

Dollar remains steady after ADP private employment report which shows 58k jobs were added to the US economy in Sep. The data is basically inline with expectation of 53k which improved from a downwardly revised 27k in Aug. In the Challenger report, job cut announcements edged down in Sep from 79k to 71k. Both data are supportive to a recovery in Friday's NFP. Markets' focus is turning to the ISM non-manufacturing index, in particular the employment component.

The Japanese yen weakens broadly since European session suggesting another leg up could be seen in yen crosses today. USD/JPY also set to take out recently established range and resume corrective rally from 111.59, towards 118 level. Read the rest of this analysis

Daily FX Forecast

2007-10-02T17:46:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD

Resistance levels: 1.4190/1.4230/1.4300
Support levels: 1.4140/1.4100/1.4060

EUR/USD has fallen further to 1.4140 Support earlier today as it was suggested Today focus will be on US Pending Home Sales numbers at 14:00 GMT . The consensus is at -2.1%. The bias remains positive for further rally towards 1.4300 and higher in longer term. In short term , if the number comes out at -5.0% or more negative pullback towards 1.4190 may be seen after the event. On downside, if the number comes out at +3.0% may ease price further down to 1.4100 later today. Look to buy on pullback for test of 1.4300 and higher

Strategy-neutral.
GBP/USD

Resistance levels: 2.0450/2.0500/2.0550
Support levels: 2.0350/2.0300/2.0230

GBP/USD has remained ranged above 2.0350 first Support earlier today No change in our view The bias remains positive for retest of 2.0500 and 2.0550 in mid and longer term First Resistance comes at 2.0450. On downside, below 2.0350 first Support may ease price further down to 2.0310 and 2.0230 key one in mid term. Look to buy again on pullback for retest of 2.0500 and higher

Strategy-neutral
USD/JPY

Resistance levels: 115.90/116.40/117.10
Support levels: 115.25/114.60//114.00

USD/JPY has retested 115.90 crucial Resistance earlier today. No change in our view Above 115.90 area later today reverses price to 116.40 target and 117.10 over the next trading days.On downside, the previous Resistance at 115.25 has turned into important Support now ahead of 114.60 key one.

Strategy-neutral.

.....Read more....

Daily Currency Report - GBP/USD

2007-09-30T23:08:00.000-07:00

Forex Technical Analysis Reports | Written by Forex618 | Oct 01 07 04:17 GMT |

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 2.0080

Key G7 Support levels: 2.0280, 2.0200

Counter-trend opportunities: None

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion: The pound has followed suite with the euro and rush up higher to test the 78.6$ Fibonacci at 2.0450. Weekly momentum is clearly bullish again, and this means we shall watch for dips to buy into. Allow for some retracement to above mentioned support levels before buying, with tight stops and a target of circa 2.0600. Remember once again that the pound is at/near multi-decade highs, and this will cause volatile swings in both directions, and probably a sudden collapse later in the month as traders realise that we cannot go much higher. Aggressive traders might try counter-trend shorts between 2.0500 and 2.0600, but only on very clear spikes or reversal patterns.

Summary: BUY dips to 2.0280/2.0200, target 2.0500/2.0600. Aggressive traders might try selling on signs of topping while below 2.0650.

.....Read more Actionforex.com....

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

2007-09-27T23:00:00.000-07:00

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

Forex Technical Analysis Reports | Written by FXtechtrade | Sep 28 07 04:28 GMT |

AUD/USD

Today's support: - 0.8794 and 0.8763 (main). Break will give 0.9747, where a delay is possible. Then 0.8730, where a correction could be. If a strong impulse, we would see 0.9708, where a correction can be. Continuation will give 0.8686.

Today's resistance: - 0.8845 (main). Break would give 0.8859 where a correction may be. Then 0.8888. If a strong impulse, we would see 0.8907. Continuation will give 0.8933.

NZD/USD

Today's support: - 0.7537 and 0.7512(main). Break will give 0.7496, where correction is possible. Then 0.7472, where a correction could also be. If a strong impulse, we would see 0.7459. Continuation will lead to 0.7436.

Today's resistance: - 0.7585(main). Break will give 0.7596, where a correction is possible. Then 0.7607. If a strong impulse, we would see 0.7619. Continuation will bring 0.7631.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 13 877.00, 13 851.56 and 13 827.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 13 800.94, where correction also can be. Then 13 772.81. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 13 736.20. Continuation will bring 13 713.78.

Today's resistance: - 13 930.31(main), where a a delay and correction may happen.Break would bring 13 952.11, where a correction may happen.Then 13 987.97, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 14 006.24. Continuation would bring 14 020.13.

FXtechtrade
http://www.fxtechtrade.com

Daily Currency Report - GBP/USD

2007-09-21T09:10:00.000-07:00

Daily Currency Report - GBP/USD

Forex Technical Analysis Reports | Written by Forex618 | Sep 21 07 04:17 GMT |

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 2.0350

Key G7 Resistance levels: 2.0220

Counter-trend opportunities: None

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion: Range trading between 2.0200 and 1.9900, the pound has not done nearly as well as the euro and is still in a weekly bearish mode. Continue to look to sell into rallies whilst below 2.0200, with tight stops and a target of 1.9900.

Summary: BUY 1.9990, for another move up to 2.0200. Sell near 2.0200 for another test of 2.000 and then on to 1.9600.

----Read more.......

Focus Turning to UK Retail Sales and Bernanke

2007-09-20T09:18:00.000-07:00

Dollar is staying in tight range against majors today as Aussie stole the show in Asia. The Australian dollar extends recent rebound, partly supported by return of risk appetite in the markets and partly due to rising commodity prices. Markets outlook remains generally unchanged. Firstly, dollar will continue to be pressured against Euro and commodity currencies on rate outlook. Meanwhile, Sterling will be pressured more on rate cut expectations. Yen will be weak across the board on fading of risk aversion theme in short term. Meanwhile, Euro will likely be the main beneficiary on relative strength against dollar as well as in EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY crosses.

Fed Cuts Fed Funds and Discount Rates by 50 Basis Points, Issues Neutral Statement

2007-09-18T15:58:00.000-07:00

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports | Written by RBC Financial Group | Sep 18 07 19:43 GMT |

The Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds and discount rates by 50 basis points today in an effort to stave off an economic slowdown "that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote growth over time." The 50 basis-point cut in the funds rate to 4.75% was in line with RBC Economics' view, but was more aggressive than the majority of forecasters who looked for a 25 basis-point Fed funds rate cut. It was the first rate cut by the Fed since June 2003.

While today's cuts were more aggressive than many were looking for, the statement indicates that the Fed has assumed a more neutral stance, which lessens the odds that there are more rate cuts in the pipeline. In their statement, the FOMC implied that today's action should be enough to offset the downside risks emanating from the recent bout of financial market volatility.

The Fed's statement made clear they are not taking their eye off inflation, stating that "inflation risks remain and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully". On balance, the statement gives little indication that policymakers feel that rates must go lower. Rather, the Fed is biased to hold the funds rate steady, although the central bank will continue to watch the current economic data to guide policy decisions in the near-tem.

We expect the Fed to hold the funds rate steady going into 2008 and are holding to our view that these rate cuts will be transitory and reversed by the middle of next year as the threat from financial market volatility subsides and the risk to the inflation outlook starts to dominate concerns about economic growth.

........Read more......

FX Implications for 25-bps and 50 bps Fed Move

2007-09-18T15:50:00.000-07:00

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports | Written by CMC Markets NY | Sep 18 07 12:06 GMT |

5 reasons why the Fed should go for 25-bp cut

1. The incoming Fed easing cycle will start from 5.25%, a lower interest rate level than the beginning of previous easing cycles. Given the uncertainty of the current environment, the Fed will want to maintain its firepower for a possible deterioration in credit conditions, market/banking confidence and economic fundamentals.
2. Despite the freeze in liquidity and reduced confidence amid banks seen in rising inter-bank rates, equity markets have risen 7% from the mid August lows, indicating that the Fed's liquidity injections have partially succeeded in averting a serious dislocation in confidence and liquidity.
3. Economic data, while pointing to clear evidence of weakness (home prices/sales, construction spending, retail sales, jobless claims), the deterioration has been slow and gradual. Despite showing declines, ISM services and manufacturing remain above 50, never a coincident figure for 50-bp cuts.
4. The bigger easing alternative of 50 bps will mean a more rapid assault against the already beleaguered US dollar, which is at 15-year lows against a basket of 6 currencies, and less than 30 points away from its 36-year lows. Unlike in 1998 and 2001 when Fed rate cuts boosted the dollar, the current global economic landscape is characterized by a unique decoupling of central bank policies from that of the Federal Reserve. Even if the ECB, BoE, RBA and BoC remain on hold, a lack of easing is already a positive for their currencies against the US dollar.
5. A 25-bps rate cut in the fed funds to 5.00% is likely to be accompanied by a 50-bps cut in the discount rate to 5.25%, therefore reducing the difference between the two rates and hence, the effective penalty on banks seeking assistance at the discount window. On the other hand, a 50-bp cut in the funds rate will require a 75-bps cut in the discount rate in order to reduce the difference between the two rates and more effectively the reduce the implicit penalty of discount borrowing. Reducing the penalty of discount borrowing is important especially that banks borrowed over $7.0 billion from the discount window last week, the highest since the week of September 11
........Read more.........

MARKET TALK: USD/CAD Indicators Point To Parity

2007-09-17T22:39:00.000-07:00

Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464
Markettalk.eu@dowjones.com

0753 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/CAD structure and momentum is still bearish, and suggests further slippage toward 1.02 and 1.0130, says Lehman Brothers. The bank adds that weekly indicators suggest an extension to parity or the June 1976 low of 0.9630. Topside, resistance is seen at 1.0350, or 1.0395 should cap. USD/CAD now at 1.0277. (GST)

0752 GMT [Dow Jones] With all the attention on the FOMC monetary policy meeting Tuesday, European government bonds will probably trade cautiously until the rate announcement (around 1815 GMT), says Alessandro Mercuri, a strategist at ABN Amro. Adds, "we call for a 25bp cut both today and in October." The market is fully pricing in a 25bp cut in the Fed Funds rate, with a 50/50 chance of a 50bp cut, according to John Wraith, head of strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland. (KJE)

0752 GMT [Dow Jones] Pakistan call money rate ends flat, but funds shortage in interbank market pushes banks to central bank's discount window for second consecutive session; call rate closes at 9.90% unchanged from the previous close. With no major cash inflows scheduled this week, rates likely to remain firm Wednesday and more discounting expected. Cash demand to remain high as corporate tax payments due in September. "There is heavy cash demand, and as the market is tight, there is no option for the banks but to go to the discount window," says dealer. (ARA)

0749 GMT [Dow Jones] Sensex +0.5% at 15578.32, led by bargain buying in select index stocks, aslo helped by European market opening. Expect index to trade volatile, in 15400-15700 band for the day. Overall, market breadth positive with 1,745 shares up, 920 shares down on BSE. "There is buying in shares which have underperformed in the recent rally. But, volume is relatively low in index stocks suggesting investors remain cautious before the FOMC meeting," says dealer; adds, quantum of rate cut, any word on slowdown in the U.S economy to determine future trend in market. ICICI Bank (532174.BY) +2.2% at INR914.15, SBI (500112.BY) +0.6% at INR1,656.20. ONGC (500312.BY) +1.2% at INR845.75, Bharti Airtel (532454.BY) +2.3% at INR833. But, Cipla (500087.BY) off 1.8% at INR168.90. (GSV)

0748 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/GBP's upside bias is totally intact while the rate holds above the last intra-day low of 0.6905, notes ABN Amro. Topside, the break of the recent peak at 0.6947 opens the door toward at least 0.7021 and potentially 0.7107 says the bank. EUR/GBP now trades at 0.6949. (GST)

0746 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian government Tuesday sells IDR3 trillion in two-year bonds with zero coupon at average yield of 8.74%; amount higher than IDR2 trillion target as receives IDR6.48 trillion in total bids; good demand perhaps signals Indonesian markets starting to recover after recent U.S. subprime crisis damaged sentiment. (IMS)

0745 GMT [Dow Jones] Philippine August budget surplus at PHP13.9 billion, lower than PHP15.36 billion goal as improved revenue collection outdone by extra spending; still, markets likely to welcome budget news since January-August deficit of PHP25.5 billion is narrower than PHP36.92 billion limit for period due to privatization receipts. Finance Secretary Teves says August results puts government firmly on track to stay within PHP63 billion deficit for 2007. (SFL)

0741 GMT [Dow Jones] KRW IRS rates fall about 1 bp on short-covering by banks near end of day's trade, but relatively quiet most of session as players take to sidelines ahead of U.S. Fed rate decision; 3-year rate closes around 5.22%, 5-year at 5.26%. "Players have priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in the U.S., so the market wouldn't move much tomorrow. But if there is a cut of 50 basis points or more than the market IRS rates will fall further," says trader. CCS-IRS basis narrows in 1-year by 3 bps to around minus 115 due to rise in USD/KRW in spot, but swap basis widens by 2 bps in 2-3 year tenors; "Narrowing in shorter term swap basis will be limited when the Fed cuts rates because there will be increase in dollar selling in the forward market," trader says. (JYY)

0740 GMT [Dow Jones] The Bank of England's provision of additional liquidity is hardly surprising following the UK Treasury's decision Monday to guarantee the deposits at Northern Rock as the rout threatens to spread to other banks. "The step has opened up considerable debate regarding its merits, with many questioning whether the government has introduced moral hazard by its actions," says Calyon. The bank suggests the GBP's immediate fortunes may now rest on the length of queues outside Northern Rock. "But," it adds," with the news headlines likely to remain grim, the downside risks for GBP will persist." (NEH)

0740 GMT [Dow Jones] Calyon says domestic case for lower Hungarian rates remains compelling. Notes that macroeconomic indicators are pointing toward slower economic growth while CPI pressures are declining fast. In addition to a 25bp move next Monday, Calyon expects a further 75bp of cuts during the final quarter of the year, taking the key repo rate to 6.75% by December. Two-year swap rates, which have eased from more than 7.5% in mid-August to 7.17% at present, still have significant scope to decline further, Calyon adds. (EHB)

0740 GMT [Dow Jones] SNB leaves its one-week repo rate unchanged at 2.08%. The offering of cheap funds in the money market is seen as a move to offset last week's increase in the benchmark, the 3-month Swiss franc Libor, to 2.75% from 2.50%. SNB's President Roth pointed out in a speech late Monday that the central bank refrained from saying that it has a tightening bias when it hiked rates last Thursday. (AAG)

0739 GMT [Dow Jones] The NOK may continue to strengthen in the near-term as oil prices surge, says Ylva Sovik of Handelsbanken. However, "we see a weaker NOK when Norges Bank revises down their interest rate trajectory Oct. 31." Handelsbanken last week revised its rate outlook downward to a peak of 5%. Norges Bank forecast a 5.5% peak, but the forecast was made prior to the recent financial market unrest. EUR/NOK edges lower to 7.799 from 7.802 at 0600 GMT. (JLS)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 18, 2007 03:53 ET (07:53 GMT)

Five Days Result Trading

2007-09-12T02:03:00.000-07:00

My result trading on North Finance Platform just in five days.
This profit base on fundamental analisys, mainly on weekly trend.

Source of analisys : Actionforex

SIGNAL TRADING TODAY

2007-09-10T21:58:00.000-07:00

USDJPY

EURUSD

GBPUSD

SIGNAL TRADING TODAY

2007-09-09T22:46:00.001-07:00

EURUSD

GBPUSD

Taking Profit 48 Points Today

2007-09-07T05:56:00.000-07:00

After observe and analyze economic fundamental for USD, GBP and JPY based on some of critical indicators, we take profit from trade 48 points. This action perform mainly based on Daily Action Insigth.

Just one single indicator that make us taking BUY (LONG) on GBPUSD pair. Especially we have strong believe that GBPUSD will upside today. 48 points is enough for us. We close trading on Friday, and will start again on Monday.

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Support by : Actionforex.com

Signal Trading Today

2007-09-04T21:45:00.000-07:00

BUY USDJPY

Buy Stop-1 USDJPY 116.23
TP 116.43 and SL@ 115.83
Buy Stop-2 USDJPY 116.43
TP 116.53 and SL@ 116.23

SELL USDJPY

Sell Stop-1 USDJPY 115.83
TP 115.63 and SL@ 115.43
Sell Stop-2 USDJPY 115.63
TP 115.53 SL@ 115.83

POTENSIAL REVERSAL LEVELS

Bearish Correction
Buy Stop USDJPY 115.63
TP 116.23 and SL@ 115.63
Bullish Correction
Sell Stop USDJPY 116.43
TP 115.83 and SL@ 116.53

Daily Technical Strategist

2007-09-03T05:24:00.000-07:00

EURUSD: The 1.3681/83 Area To Trigger Upside Gains

EURUSD- Having repeatedly challenged the 1.3681/83 area (April 30’07/Aug 24’07 highs) with little success and held above technical levels at the 1.3626/00 zone, its psycho level/May 07’07 high and the 1.3554/55 area, its .50 Ret (1.3262-1.3851 rally)/Jun 05’07,EUR has to cleanly penetrate and negate the 1.3681/83 area to further upside gains towards the 1.3771 level, its July 26’07 high before its Aug 06’07/2007 highs at 1.3839/51.Breaking through this zone resumes its medium term uptrend on hold since late Jul’07.The daily studies continue to push to the upside suggesting additional strength. Downside targets below the 1.3554/55 area will aim at the 1.3486/98 area, its .618 Ret/ MT rising trendline with the next two downside objectives seen at its Jun 21’07 low/Dec’06 high/Aug 16’07 low at 1.3371/59 and the 1.3262 level which marks its Jun’07 low and beyond. On the whole, as long as the pair remains above the 1.3626/00 and the 1.3554/55 area further upside challenges are likely.

Support Comments
1.3626/00 Psycho level/May 07’07 high
1.3554/55 .50 Ret (1.3262-1.3851 rally)/Jun 05’07 high
1.3484/98 .618 Ret/MT rising trendline
1.3371/63 Jun 21’07 low/Aug 16’07 high/Dec’06 high/D-top price target

Resistance Comments
1.3668/83 Dec’04/April 30’07/ Aug 24’07 highs
1.3771 July 26’07 high
1.3839/51 Aug 06’07/2007 highs

......Read more.....

Don't let the JPY fool you!

2007-08-31T01:45:00.000-07:00

Don't let the JPY fool you!

By John Jagerson, 30 Aug 2007

Core CPI was just released in Japan with another decline equal to last month. This is bad news for officials in Japan as the fight against deflation continues. The decline of -.01% this month was disappointing and will make it very difficult for the BoJ to raise rates in the near term. This is clearly very bad news to the hawks in Japan who want to begin normalizing their monetary policy.

The immediate reaction to this is a mild decline of the JPY against the USD. I can see the rationale behind that. If a rate hike is less likely then the currency is still cheap and likely to be shorted. However, I would make the argument that the probability, high or low, of a rate hike is irrelevant to the near term future of the major JPY crosses. Specifically, I think this could turn into a trap for USD/JPY bulls or over zealous carry-traders.

The real driver of the JPY in the short term is going to be risk. If the credit problems in the U.S. continue to expand we will see investors continue to cover their short JPY positions and that is likely to drive the USD/JPY down. Don't get trapped until we see more evidence that risks, not rates, are declining.

__________________
Analysis by Profiting With Forex (PFX)

Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD

2007-08-30T02:10:00.000-07:00

Forex Technical Analysis Reports Written by iFOREX.bg Aug 30 07 09:01 GMT GBP/USD 2.0143

GBP/USD Open 2.0164 High 2.0181 Low 1.9964 Close 2.0163 Support is the broken top 1.9928, followed by the bottoms 1.9743 and 1.9653. In upward direction resistance is 2.0197, after which comes the top from 9 August 2.0392. Break at the last level leads to test of the 26 year top at 2.0645. Technical resistance levels: 2.0197 2.0392 2.0636Technical support levels: 1.9928 1.9743 1.9653 Trading range: 2.0155 - 2.0070 .....Read more....

Currency Crosses: Euro - Risk And Carry Slowly Bid

2007-08-24T05:49:00.000-07:00

Forex Technical Analysis Reports Written by DailyFX Aug 24 07 12:25 GMT

EURAUD

Commentary - As investors slowly add capital back into their 'risky' long carry trades, caution remains the tentative tone of the market. The high rate differential in the yen crosses clearly received traders immediate attention in the aftermath of substantial sell offs; but those moves have tapered off as fear once again blooms out of the quiet. Now, as traders look for the safer places to add to their carry portfolios, there is a clear interest in the pairs with somewhat smaller yield differentials as they are deemed better able to hold off momentum in another bout of unwinding with most of the market focusing its attention on the yen first. Technicals seem to hold something else in store for EURAUD though. Trendline support has come up to meet the 50% fib of the 7/26 to 8/17 swing high. A break of the short-term, downward sloping channel or rising trendline seems inevitable; and we remain flat on the pair until the break initiates the next leg.
...............Read more........

Today's Market Update

2007-08-21T06:35:00.000-07:00

Follow the trading day with FOREX.com's Market Updates.

Published three times daily, after the close of each major trading session in Tokyo, London, and New York, each Market Update summarizes the key takeaways from each trading session. Find out the potential impact each major market may have on upcoming price action, and learn about important technical levels and events to watch

The Carry Trade theme is back in the spotlight today as traders reacted to various news reports that hit the headlines. Trading conditions have been ideal. Market participants have seen steady, consistent volume occur within above-average ranges. Volatility has been healthy, best characterized by “active”, while bordering on “quick” at times. The news that affected trading was all financial related, but varied by topic and geography.

Early in the London Session, rumors floated across trading desks that a UK insurer will announce negative news due to the sub-prime/credit issues plaguing the financial world. Traders did not hesitate to sell the British Pound, which turned out to be the first move of the session. GBPUSD collapsed from around 1.9850 to an eventual low in the 1.9745 area. EURUSD remained range-bound for the majority of London trading in the 1.3460-80 zone (though it just broke out to the topside), which propped EURGBP. The news had a negative effect on the “risky” Carry Trade as well. Consequently, EURJPY led the way lower, shedding about 150 pips from 155.00 to 153.50 at one point during the past few hours. USDJPY took the worst of it, as EURUSD traded tight, and plunged about 100 pips from 115.00 to 114.00. The Carry Trade has since rebounded and recouped a good portion of the losses, as shown by the current EURJPY level of 154.35. ......Read more......

Weekly Outlook: Markets to Consolidate This Week after Fed's Discount Rate Cut

2007-08-20T04:24:00.000-07:00

Action Insight Written by ActionForex.com Aug 19 07 11:09 GMT
Fed's 50 bps discount rate cut on Friday stabilized the markets which was in massive carry trade unwinding as the subprime mortgage crisis spread through global credit markets. But still, the ultimate carry trade pair, NZDJPY tumbled near to 10% while AUD/JPY also dropped close to 9%. High yielding currencies and European majors except the Swissy, were hammered much lower too before late Friday's recovery. Important technical levels were taken out in most pairs that signaled at least a medium term reversal. However, as a short term top/bottom should be in place after Fed stepped in, and with a rather light calendar, more consolidation could be seen this week before extending the reversed trend.
Read more...

Daily Report: Yen Retreats Further, Dollar in Range as Investors Calmed Down

2007-08-20T04:22:00.000-07:00

Action Insight Written by ActionForex.com Aug 20 07 07:50 GMT
The forex market is generally quiet as the week starts. Strong rebound is seen in Asian stock markets which is triggered by Fed's surprise discount rate cut last Friday. Yen crosses continues to rebound further but dollar majors continue to stuck in tight range only. As discussed before, the massive carry trade unwinding is not considered to be completed yet. Fed's discount rate cut, and even Fed Fund rate cut, could halt the current liquidation of riskier assets but the trend will likely continue. But still, with a light economic calendar, and probably support from further rebound in the stock markets, Forex markets will likely continue to consolidate today and this week first.
.....Read more...

Technical Analysis for Crosses

2007-08-20T01:43:00.000-07:00

Forex Technical Analysis Reports Written by Crown Forex Aug 20 07 08:03 GMT

GBP/JPY

The Pound started to gain back against the Yen, and now the first target is set at the 231.60s level, yet the general trend is neutral so far, and the level at 227.53 seems to offer good demand for the pair.
Support: 228.08, 227.71, 227.53, 227.29, 226.85 Resistance: 228.64, 228.95, 229.13, 229.50, 229.87

EUR/JPY

The Euro started to incline against the Yen as well, yet we need more confirmation about the upside trend, and the level at 155.18 seems to offer good demand for the pair.
Support: 155.38, 155.18, 154.98, 154.74, 154.55 Resistance: 155.70, 155.86, 156.05, 156.29, 156.53

EUR/GBP

The Euro has the upper hand so far against the Pound, as the pair reached the second target at 0.6825s, yet fell back to the 0.6790 levels, which represents a resistance now for the pair, the point at 0.6769 seems to offer good demand for the pair.

Support: 0.6780, 0.6769, 0.6752, 0.6735, 0.6723

Resistance: 0.6790, 0.6800, 0.6810, 0.6825, 0.6835

Beyond The Numbers

2007-08-16T11:54:00.000-07:00

Downside Likely as Credit Concerns Continue To Weigh On Sentiment

The major index futures are pointing to a lower opening on Thursday, as the credit market continues to spew forth negative tidings. Countrywide Financial (CFC) could see yet another down day after it said it is going to tap into its entire credit line. Meanwhile, economic reports released suggested that the housing market is still not out of the woods and the job market is showing signs of weakness, which could fortify expectations for an interest rate cut. Nonetheless, the credit crisis could linger in the minds of traders and prod them to be more cautious before they take any big bets. ........Read more........

Daily Forex Analysis

2007-08-15T03:15:00.000-07:00

Economic News

USD

There was some positive news for the greenback yesterday as the headline US Producer Price Index surprised on the upside releasing at 0.6 %, beating the expected figure of 0.1 % and this rise in producer inflation increases speculation that the Fed will cut rates in the near future. There was more good news to follow for the greenback as the US trade deficit shrunk to 58.1 B. The market was expecting the trade deficit to rise from last months figure of 59.2 B to 61.0 B, so this surprisingly strong data was the main driver of the greenbacks bullish burst against most of the majors. The two key factors responsible for shrinking the US trade deficit is the drop in oil prices and the weak USD. The decrease oil prices means that the US is spending less on imports while a weak dollar is improving the US exporter's ability to compete against the Chinese and US goods are gradually becoming a more preferable alternative to the foreign consumer. The greenback has been steadily pulling back lost ground against the GBP and the EUR in the last two days and yesterday's weak UK CPI figures coupled with the growing investor speculation that the ECB will not raise rates in September contributed to the continuing decline of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD crosses. The US and European equity markets suffered further losses yesterday and although the USD managed to hold its ground against the JPY it did eventually begin to depreciate against the Japanese currency giving further indication that the market is beginning to experience the full extent of a carry trade unwind particularly with today's looming hedge fund deadline. .......Read more.......

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

2007-08-13T22:43:00.000-07:00

Forex Technical Analysis Reports Written by FXtechtrade Aug 14 07 04:08 GMT

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.3588(main), where correction is possible.Break would give
1.3575, where correction also may be. Then 1.3566. Break of the latter would result in 1.3539. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3512. Continuation will give 1.3496.
Today's resistance: - 1.3646, 1.3680, 1.3705 and 1.3728(main). Break would give 1.3737, where a correction is possible. Then 1.3746. Break of the latter would result in 1.3770. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3793. Continuation will give 1.3818.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 117.66 and 117.42(main). Break would bring 117.17, where correction is possible. Then 116.96. If a strong impulse, we would see 116.65. Continuation would give 116.44.
Today's resistance: - 118.60(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 118.74, where also a correction may be. Then 118.82. If a strong impulse, we would see 119.03. Continuation will give 119.25.

DOW JONES INDEX ...........Read more...........

Forex Market Issues and Risks

2007-08-13T22:38:00.000-07:00

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports Written by AC-Markets Aug 14 07 05:18 GMT

OTEuro falls after ECB cash injection

News and Events:The Euro fell to a one-month low against the Dollar on Monday after the European Central Bank pumped cash into the banking system for a third straight day to soothe a market rattled by US sub-prime mortgage market problems. The Euro came under pressure as investors began to lower their expectations for a rate rise in September from the ECB in the face of turbulent credit markets. Analysts said 'the market has been expecting the ECB to hike rates, but if all these injections lead the market believe that they won't hike it, and this credit contagion gets worse, that could definitely hurt the Euro'. The ECB injected 47.67 billion euros ($64.93 billion) into euro-zone money markets Monday in a one-day tender to replace Friday's special three-day tender for 61.05 billion euros. The moves by ECB helped ease short term borrowing costs that jumped higher last week after redemptions were frozen on several European banks' funds associated with the US sub-prime mortgage sector, including three at France's largest bank, BNP Paribas. ....Read more........

Daily FX Forecast

2007-08-08T17:33:00.001-07:00

EUR/USD

Resistance levels: 1.3815/1.3850/1.3880

Support levels: 1.3760/1.3720/1.3670

EUR/USD has reversed directly towards 1.3815 Resistance earlier today No important fundamental news today.The bias remains positive and the break beyond 1.3683 record high signals further upmove towards 1.3880 in longer term , targeting 1.40 First up target is in the 1.3850-55 region. On downside, first Support comes around 1.3760 ahead of 1.3720 daily bottom. Look to buy on pullback for test of 1.3850-55 area and 1.3880.

Strategy-neutral.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels: 2.0350/2.0420/2.0460

Support levels: 2.0300/2.0240/2.0160

GBP/USD has had a decent rally directly beyond 2.0350 earlier today after Bank of England Inflationary Report, rebounding from the 2.0156 daily low ( just a shy away from our second target at 2.0150) We have booked 60 pip profit over the first part of our Short position. Unfortunately, the rest of the position has been sopped earlier today at 2.0250 with another small 20 profit. The bias has reversed for test of 2.0460 key Resistance and up target over the next couple of days. In longer term, a break beyond 2.0460 signals resuming the uptrend towards 2.0600 and higher. On downside, first minor Support comes at 2.0300 ahead of 2.0340 stronger one. Look to buy on pullback for test of 2.0450-60 area over the next trading days.

Srategy-neutral.

USD/JPY

Resistance levels: 119.45/119.90/120.30

Support levels: 118.90/118.00/117.20

USD/JPY has risen to 119.40-50 first Resistance region earlier today exactly as it was suggested.. No change in our view. As long as price is below 119.50 key Resistance level the bias remains bearish for retest of 117.20 bottom and lower with next target at 116.60. First Support and pivot comes around 118.90 ahead of 118.00 yesterday bottom. On the other side, a break above 119.40-50 area may reverse the bias directly towards 120.20-30 area over today and tomorrow

Strategy-neutral.

Read more...............

Rate Sentiment Drives FX

2007-08-08T17:16:00.000-07:00

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports Written by MG Financial Group Aug 08 07 20:03 GMT

The dollar was mixed in the Wednesday session amid a dearth of fresh US economic news, climbing higher against the yen but falling sharply versus the sterling. The data release was limited to June wholesale inventories, which was slightly higher than expected at 0.5%, unchanged from the previous month. Interest rate expectations continue to play a key role in the FX market, with the Aussie and sterling regaining its footing on hawkish sentiment from both respective central banks. Read more this articles..........

Weekly Forex Signals: GBP/USD

2007-08-06T02:06:00.000-07:00

Forex Weekly Reports Written by Finotec Group Aug 06 07 08:18 GMT

Headlines: Sterling looks brighter against the US dollar

LONG SIGNAL GBP/USD

Buy a break of resistance level at 2.0500
Buy a break of resistance level at 2.0475
Buy a bounce at 2.0370

SHORT SIGNAL GBP/USD

Sell a break of support level at 2.0370
Sell a break of support level at 2.0335
Sell if cannot break the resistance 2.0475

The GBP may continue the uptrend against the US dollar; according to technical charts traders predict the price movements by using many time frame analysis, and oscillators like RSI, which gives us bullish signals. The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD recently continues the uptrend and fail to make lower then the previous support 2.0221.

* The following analysis is for information only; Finotec is not responsible for any decisions or misinterpretations based on the given text

Weekly Technical Strategist

2007-08-05T23:22:00.000-07:00

Forex Weekly Reports Written by FXTechstrategy Aug 06 07 04:31 GMT

Weekly Technical Strategist

EURUSD: Turns Back Above The 1.3668/81 levels
GBPUSD: Halts Its Downside Weakness Temporarily.
USDJPY: Bears Continue To Dominate

EURUSD

Having pushed off the 1.3611 low on Monday followed with another two days of weakness, EUR turned sharply higher on Friday invalidating its minor resistance at 1.3727(July 31'07 high) and breaking through its Jul 26'07 high at 1.3771 to close the week at 1.3787.The pair is up by 1.01% for the week and if a follow-through to the upside materializes, scope for extension towards its 2007 peak at 1.3851 is likely. Above there will resume the pair's medium term uptrend on hold since July 24'07 towards 1.4000, its psychologically important level.
Read more the articles......

Long USD/JPY Daily

My Trading Result

2007-08-03T03:47:00.001-07:00

My trading result on Euro, Pounds and Yen. Not bad :-)

Trading Today

2007-08-02T21:34:00.000-07:00

Cable signal buy at 2.0400 and selll at 2.0300. Target profit 30 point

Euro and Pounds Today

2007-08-02T07:24:00.000-07:00

Open position signal for Eouro today : Buy

latest (Aug 1) 0.730887 lowest (Jul 20) 0.723014 highest (Mar 5) 0.763709

Open position signal for Pounds today : Buy

latest (Aug 1) 0.492393 lowest (Jul 24) 0.484825 highest (Mar 5) 0.519886

Dollar, Bond Yields and Dow All See Major Losses: Is this THE Turn?

2007-07-21T02:49:00.000-07:00

Friday, 20 July 2007 20:34:15 GMT
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• Euro Hits Record Highs, Bond Yields and Dow All See Major Losses: Is this THE Turn?

• Euro Headed Towards 1.40?

• Carry Trades: Is this Profit Taking or Liquidation?

With no economic data released today, the only thing that could rattle the currency markets was a reversal in US stocks. Not only did a reversal actually occur, but bond yields also fell sharply, triggering major losses in the both the US dollar and carry trades. Many people may be wondering, what happened? There were rumors that a German bank will be reporting large subprime losses and also talk that Standard and Poor’s could be downgrading European mortgages. The contagion effect warned by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier this week has now become global, which is clearly too much for speculators to handle. Banks on Wall Street are reporting that hedge funds are bailing out of USD/JPY big time, which explains the sharp move in the currency pair today. Ten year bond yields broke below the psychologically important 5 percent mark, leaving the curve relatively flat at the moment. The triple digit losses in the Dow could extend for at least a few more days which lead us to wonder whether this is THE turn in the markets. Possibly. Bernanke made a mild but clear shift in his outlook for the economy and monetary policy this week. He has warned about the subprime sector and if a German bank truly reports a big loss as rumored, then a rise in risk aversion is certainly warranted. With the subprime sector being watched so closely, next week’s reports of existing, new and pending home sales will be particularly market moving. Should the rumors about the German bank prove unfounded and the housing data fails to show further deterioration, do not be surprised to see a return of risk appetite. The market’s tolerance for risk over the past few months has been far greater than anyone may have initially anticipated. Looking ahead, aside from the housing market reports, we are also expecting the Beige Book release, durable goods and the advance release of second quarter GDP. It should continue to be an exciting trading week.
Euro Headed Towards 1.40?The Euro climbed to a new record high today, putting 1.40 within arm’s reach. Like the US, there was no major economic data released, which means that the move higher was solely driven by subprime related dollar weakness. The biggest question on the minds of Euro traders is whether this will matter for the European Central Bank, who will be meeting to discuss monetary policy in 2 weeks. Judging from the recent comments made by ECB President Trichet and his peers, it will not. Earlier this week, Trichet has warned European politicians that interference into their monetary policy decisions will be a breach of the EU treaty. He may not want to talk down the Euro anytime soon because that may be misinterpreted as giving into political pressure. Furthermore, not only has ECB Garganas indicated that further rate hikes are likely, but this morning, Constancio said that they have no target for the exchange rate. Unlike back in December 2005, Germany, the Eurozone largest member country is better equipped to handle a stronger currency. Therefore if the ECB does step in to stop the Euro’s rise, it would certainly be a blow coming from the left field. Looking ahead, the most important pieces of data on the Eurozone calendar are EZ PMI, M3 and the German IFO survey. Steady or softer figures are expected all around. Meanwhile Swiss producer prices were much softer than the market expected in June, but this has not affected the value of the Franc. Next week, we are expecting the KoF report of leading indicators.
Carry Trades: Is this Profit Taking or Liquidation? Japanese Yen crosses or carry trades have sold off significantly today, raising the question of whether this is finally liquidation or just another bout of profit taking. The gap between Japanese and US bond yields has been narrowing with Japanese Yields holding steady and US yields selling off aggressively, which suggests that market sentiment has changed. For USD/JPY we have seen weakness throughout the past week and further losses are of course contingent upon whether the problems in subprime become global. The degree of today’s move reminds us of the move that happened in early June which means that it could extend for a few more days next week. There is enough on the US and Japanese calendar next week to prove to us whether the markets have really turned. From Japan, we are expecting consumer prices and retail sales.
British Pound Hits New 26 Year High on Stronger GDP Growth and Dollar WeaknessThe British pound surged to a fresh 26 year high on the back of overall dollar weakness and stronger second quarter GDP growth. A rise in oil extraction in the North Sea provided an unexpected surprise to GDP growth. With the market so bullish British pounds to begin with, stronger growth will only give those looking for another rate hike greater confidence. The futures curve is still pricing in 6 percent interest rates by the end of the year, but the question is whether this will come in the third or fourth quarter. Last week’s less hawkish minutes suggests the latter and unless we get some surprising comments from BoE officials, we will not get much more clarity next week. The only pieces of data on the UK economic calendar are house price reports and CBI Industrial trends survey.
Commodity Currencies End Week at Multi-Year HighsThe Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars performed extraordinarily well this week. The Aussie and Kiwi actually both hit new multi year highs today before giving back their gains. Import and export prices from Australia rebounded in the second quarter even though the annualized pace of growth in Australia saw the biggest drop in 3 years. New Zealand on the other hand reported a sharp jump in credit card spending, which indicates that consumer demand is still strong. Looking ahead we are expecting inflation data from Australia, an interest rate decision from New Zealand and retail sales from Canada. Expect it to continue to be a busy week.

China economic growth hits 11-year high

2007-07-19T23:54:00.001-07:00

On target to overtake Germany as No. 3 economy, as government expected to take more action against price pressures, inflation. July 19 2007: 6:12 AM EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) -- China's annual economic growth surged in the second quarter to an 11-year high rate of 11.9 percent, cementing expectations of tighter policy to keep the world's fastest-growing major economy from overheating.
The figures, released on Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics, leave China firmly on course to chalk up its fifth straight year of double-digit growth and to overtake Germany before long as the third-biggest economy in the world.

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"It's stunning. We should expect them to raise interest rates or reserve requirements at any moment," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at Dutch bank ING in Singapore.
The spurt in gross domestic product growth from 11.1 percent in the first quarter blew past expectations of a 10.8 percent rise and prompted several banks to raise their 2007 growth forecasts.

Goldman Sachs (Charts, Fortune 500) now expects an eye-popping 12.3 percent, while JPMorgan Chase (Charts, Fortune 500) is projecting 11.3 percent. Both banks had previously forecast full-year growth of 10.8 percent.
Annual consumer price inflation in June also beat forecasts, jumping to a 33-month high of 4.4 percent from 3.4 percent in May due to a spike in the cost of pork and grain.
Li Xiaochao, the statistics agency's spokesman, said price pressures remained relatively strong, even though first-half consumer price inflation excluding food was just 0.7 percent.
"We will continue with moderate tightening to control the monetary and credit situation," Li told reporters.

Bush orders review on imported goods

The quarterly growth rate was the strongest since the last three months of 1995, Lehman Brothers said. The economy expanded 10.9 percent that year after 13.1 percent growth in 1994.
Tai Hui, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong, said 11.9 percent growth was "in the stratosphere."
"Obviously, this puts even more pressure on the authorities to take prompt action to look at their strategy," he said. "They may not call it overheating, but the truth is, these numbers are incredibly high."

Firing on all cylinders

Hui and Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong, both said an interest rate rise - which would be the third this year - could come as soon as Friday.
Higher borrowing costs, five increases so far this year in the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve, and a flurry of edicts by government planners have had little impact on the economy, which is firing on all cylinders.
Investment in fixed assets such as factories and real estate was up 25.9 percent in the first half of the year; the trade surplus is setting successive monthly records; and retail sales in the first six months grew at the strongest rate since 1997.

How Microsoft conquered China

Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said that as well as raising interest rates and banks' required reserves, the government was likely to impose new curbs on investment in sectors that guzzle energy and spew out pollution.
"However, all these measures are usual stuff. Although they may help stop growth in investment and credit from accelerating further, they won't cause a meaningful slowdown in growth in the second half of 2007," he said in a note to clients.
While Beijing needs to control inflation, the ruling Communist Party must also find some 10 million jobs every year for workers leaving the land and flocking to the city, he noted.
And because rising inflation is almost entirely due to a surge in food prices, the central bank would not slam on the brakes, Qu said.
Indeed, given the current rate of economic growth, consumer price inflation of 4-5 percent should not be seen as a big problem. "As a result, the risk of over-tightening in the rest of the year is still remote, in our view," he added.
Among other figures released on Thursday, industrial output in June rose 19.4 percent from a year earlier, retail sales were up 16 percent and investment in urban areas in June was up 28.5 percent. All were stronger than expected.
After leapfrogging Britain in 2005 to become the fourth-largest economy, China is now breathing down Germany's neck.
Li said estimates of aggregate GDP vary depending on the exchange rates used. "But one thing is certain: we are drawing nearer to Germany and the gap between us is becoming smaller."

Dow Jones Reports Improved Operating Results for Second Quarter

2007-07-19T22:00:00.000-07:00

NEW YORK — Dow Jones & Company (NYSE: DJ) today reported earnings of 25 cents per diluted share for the second quarter of 2007, compared with 34 cents per diluted share for the second quarter of 2006. Excluding special items, the Company earned 45 cents per diluted share for the second quarter of 2007, up 15.4% from the 39 cents per diluted share earned in the second quarter of 2006.
Revenue increased to $529.7 million, up 16.2% over the second quarter of 2006, driven by the acquisition of Factiva, plus growth at Dow Jones Indexes, international media (including the acquisition of eFinancialNews), The Wall Street Journal Digital Network (formerly known as Dow Jones Online) and other businesses, partially offset by a decline in print advertising revenue at The Wall Street Journal in the U.S. and at Local Media newspapers. Operating income for the quarter declined to $37.9 million from $44.9 million in 2006 on a reported basis, but operating income excluding special items increased 28.2% to $66.3 million from $51.7 million. Adjusted for the impact of recent acquisitions, revenue increased 0.9%, and operating income excluding special items increased 23.9%.
Special Items: In the second quarter of 2007, the Company recorded special items that reduced earnings per share by 20 cents, reflecting a charge of 13 cents for incremental stock-based compensation expense as a result of an increase in the Company?s stock price resulting from the announcement of News Corporation?s proposal to acquire the Company at $60 per share and a 7 cent restructuring charge in connection with a reorganization of the Company?s operations primarily within the Consumer Media segment. In the second quarter of 2006, the Company recorded special items netting to a loss of 5 cents per share, reflecting a restructuring charge in connection with a reorganization of the Company?s operations partially offset by a gain on the sale of certain fixed assets. Please refer to the attached for a description of special items.
Commenting on second quarter results, Rich Zannino, chief executive officer of Dow Jones, said ?Earnings per share before special items increased 15% in the second quarter and 30% year to date. These results provide strong evidence of the success of the transformation plan begun in early 2006. We are overcoming industry-wide softness in print advertising with many initiatives, including the acquisitions of Factiva and eFinancialNews, the redesign of the Journal for the digital age, profitable growth in our Indexes, online and Financial Information Services units, gains in both print and online circulation revenue, and continued expense reductions. We continue to work on these innovations as well as new ones to further reduce our reliance on print advertising and fuel our short- and long-term growth.?
Segment Results
Consumer Media revenue of $290.8 million in the second quarter of 2007 was down slightly versus the same period a year ago as a 1.6% decrease in advertising revenue was partially offset by a 3.0% increase in circulation and other revenue. Advertising revenue at the Wall Street Journal U.S. print edition declined 6.8% (on an 11.4% decline in volume) as weak technology, financial, general and classified advertising more than offset an increase in most consumer categories. This decline was partially offset by a 40.9% jump in ad revenue at international media, a 26.3% increase at Barron?s and a 2.7% increase at The Wall Street Journal Digital Network. Increased circulation revenue included gains at The Wall Street Journal Digital Network and the U.S. print Journal and the acquisition of eFinancialNews. Operating income grew 31.1% to $25.6 million and margin improved 210 basis points to 8.8% in the second quarter of 2007 due to cost-saving initiatives and strong profit leverage on increased revenues. Paid subscribers to The Wall Street Journal Online grew 23.6% in the second quarter to 983,000 driven in part by the success of an offer for new subscribers to receive both the print and Online Journal and by the previously announced change in our methodology to count those subscribers who have paid and registered to use the Online Journal. For more information on this change, please see footnote 2 to the supplemental segment statistical information. Paid subscribers to Barron?s Online grew 42.6% in the second quarter to 97,000.
Enterprise Media revenue of $178.2 million in the second quarter of 2007 increased 81.4% over the same period a year ago, due to gains at Dow Jones Content Technology Solutions driven by the acquisition of Factiva, and strong growth at Dow Jones Indexes (up 41.7%) and Dow Jones Financial Information Services (up 10.2%). Operating income increased 57.2% over last year to $41.4 million and operating margin declined 360 basis points to 23.2% as Factiva operates at a relatively lower margin. Assuming Factiva was owned in both periods, revenue increased 6.6%, operating income increased 44.0% and operating margin improved 600 basis points to 23.2% due to Factiva integration cost savings, other cost saving initiatives and strong profit leverage on increased revenue.
Local Media revenue declined 6.2% to $62.5 million in the second quarter of 2007 compared with the second quarter of 2006. Advertising revenue decreased 8.0% on a 13.2% decline in volume due to soft classified, non-daily, retail, national and preprint advertising revenue, partially offset by increases in print legal notices and online (up 55.2%) advertising revenues. Operating income declined 19.8% to $11.8 million compared with the prior year period, mainly due to the decline in revenue partially offset by lower newsprint expense. Operating margin in the quarter was 18.9%, down from 22.1% last year.
The Company ended the second quarter of 2007 with $392 million in debt compared with $508 million at the end of the first quarter 2007, with the decrease primarily driven by proceeds received from the exercise of employee stock options due to the significant increase in the Company?s share price resulting from the News Corporation bid in the second quarter of 2007. Capital expenditures in the second quarter of 2007 were $18.5 million compared to $19.3 million in the second quarter last year.

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Conference Call Details
As previously announced, the Company will host an earnings conference call at 10 a.m. EDT today. The call can be accessed via a live Web cast through the Investor Relations section of our Web site, http://www.dowjones.com/, or through a listen-only, dial-in conference line, by dialing 877-407-9205. A replay of the conference call and the full text of the prepared remarks will be available on our Web site in the Investor Relations section shortly after the call concludes.

Laguna Net Profit Expected to Surge 569.56%

2007-07-19T04:58:00.000-07:00

Thursday, 19 July 2007 09:48:06StockWatch (Jakarta) - Property company PT Laguna Cipta Griya Tbk (LCGP) is expected to book net profit of IDR4.141 billion in 2007, rising sharply by 569.56% from IDR618.523 million in 2006 and IDR4.757 billion in 2008, the company's president Alwi Bagir Mulachela.
He said in the company's financial projection report submitted to the JSX, the operating profit is expected to rise sharply 160.54% from IDR9.219 billion in 2006 to IDR24.019 billion in 2007 and IDR33.036 billion in 2008.
Meanwhile, the cost of goods sold (COGS) is expected to climb up from IDR6.822 billion in 2006 to IDR16.762 billion in 2007 and IDR24.263 billion in 2008.
The operating expense is projected at IDR1.796 billion and higher at IDR2.26 billion in 2008, while the operating expense is expected to rise from IDR1.198 billion to IDR5.461 billion and IDR6.513 billion in 2008. (dwi/bud)

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